It’s the first Monday of the new month, and we’re looking to keep the momentum going after cashing with the Buffalo Bills yesterday. Let’s dive into my favorite bet for tonight, but before diving into my free NFL pick for Browns-Broncos Monday Night Football, make sure to check out OddsShopper for more FREE +EV NFL bets!
Free Monday Night Football NFL Expert Pick Today: Browns-Broncos
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Free NFL Expert Pick: Broncos -6.5
I’m laying the 6.5 with the Denver Broncos tonight at home against the Cleveland Browns. If you’re shopping around, look for -6 if you can grab it without taking on heavy juice.
The Browns have been a mess all year, and it’s tough to isolate their performance data due to the constant changes at quarterback. They’ve been dealing with injuries and inconsistency, with Jameis Winston now under center. Their win over Pittsburgh in the snow was impressive but not indicative of a team ready to turn the corner.
The key issues for Cleveland remain glaring: Last in yards per play, 28th in turnover margin and struggling to run the ball effectively. These are not problems that get fixed overnight, especially on the road in Denver against a tough defense.
On the other side, you have to give credit to the Broncos. After starting 0-2, they’ve clawed their way to 7-5, winning three of their last four games on the road. Now back home, this defense is firing on all cylinders, ranking first in yards per play allowed. Plus, the team is getting strong performances from Bo Nix, who’s gaining more control of the offense.
Denver’s defense will set the tone, and as long as the Broncos avoid turnovers, this game should lean heavily in their favor. Cleveland has shown flashes, but its fatal flaws — turnovers, penalties and inefficiency in the red zone — will be its undoing.
I expect the Broncos to capitalize on these weaknesses, cruise to a comfortable double-digit victory and stay alive in the playoff race.
Best Browns-Broncos MNF Bet: Broncos -6.5 (-105) at FanDuel
