Expert Week 4 NFL Picks: Nice Edge to Be Had in Broncos-Bears Battle of the Bad (October 1)

Week 4 brings a couple of interesting — and some seriously lopsided — matchups, one of the most compelling somehow being the battle of 0-3 anti-behemoths in Broncos-Bears. Here we will turn to OddsShopper to find some expert Week 4 NFL picks for that game, plus a couple others on the slate. Let’s dive in.

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Expert Week 4 Picks: Bears, Eagles & More

Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? try it out for Week 4 now!

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-14)

It’s hard to ever lay 14 points on a team no matter how good it is, but we could be on the verge of witnessing a bloodbath on Sunday when the 49ers host the Cardinals. In one of the most shocking outcomes we’ll see all season, Arizona not only beat the Cowboys last week but held them to 16 points in a double-digit win. The Cardinals are coming off an emotionally charged victory at home, and now they’ll have to travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team that hasn’t played since last Thursday.

This is a classic blowout spot where even a backdoor cover seems unlikely. Even if Deebo Samuel isn’t able to take the field, the 49ers will still have elite talent at their disposal in Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk (trending towards playing) and George Kittle.

The Cardinals have shown far more life than anyone would’ve expected up until this point, but that momentum will come to a standstill this weekend. Take the 49ers at -14.

Expert Week 4 Pick: 49ers -14

Best Spread Line: Same Everywhere

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Get this — Sam Howell has been sacked 19 times this season; six times in Week 1, four times in Week 2 and NINE times in Week 3! He’s been sacked on 40% of pressures, with one touchdown, four interceptions and a 48.4% completion rating. Now he’ll have to face an Eagles defensive front that just obliterated the Buccaneers offensive line for 60 minutes on Monday night.

Last year the Commanders got a win against the Eagles in Week 10, handing them their first loss of the season, but they ran the ball 49 times (with success) and controlled the ball, with over 40 minutes of possession.

I don’t see how that works this time around. Jordan Davis is a monster, Jalen Carter (even in a part-time role) is a game wrecker, and funny enough, that game last year was what forced the Eagles to make changes and shore up their run defense. Fast-forward to 2023, and they rank No. 1 in run defense DVOA while allowing 3 yards per carry and 48 rushing yards per game. Teams are giving up running the ball (16 attempts per game) and forced to attack through the air.

That’s kind of what it boils down to for me. Those 8.5 points are a lot in a divisional game, but this matchup looks very lopsided. If you wanted to use the Eagles in a teaser piece, that makes a lot of sense too; let’s just stay away from those Cowboys this time around.

Expert Week 4 Pick: Eagles -8.5

Best Spread Line: -8.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Could either of these teams be any more broken than they are right now? The Broncos just coughed up 70 to the Dolphins, and the Bears are outright terrible in every facet of the game.

But the Bears are 3.5-point home dogs facing a team that’s played equally as badly as they have through three weeks. To get them outside of a field goal makes a lot more sense than trying to figure out which one of these teams is less bad than the other.

Last year, the Broncos offense could barely muster 14 points a game, which routinely resulted in one-score losses. Yet shockingly, this year it’s been their defense that’s completely unraveled. Russell Wilson has been fine but unspectacular, and he has still yet to win a single road game with the Broncos (0-9). If we’re going to bet a game with bad teams, let’s bet the team that’s more than a field goal dog at home.

Expert Week 4 Pick: Bears +3.5

Best Line: +3.5 (-115) at BetMGM