Expert Week 3 NFL Picks: How to Attack Surprising Commanders (September 24)

Week 3 is an interesting inflection point, with some major injuries starting to take shape and teams rounding into form, for better or rose. Here we will turn to OddsShopper to find some expert Week 3 NFL picks, including the Commanders and Chiefs on opposite sides of wider spreads. Let’s dive in.

Expert Week 3 Picks: Commanders, Chiefs & More

Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? try it out for Week 3 now!

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

This is more about Deshaun Watson than it is about the Titans. Through two games, the Browns might feel like they were sold a bill of goods after shelling out $230 million and trading away three first-round picks to land what they expected to be their quarterback of the future. But so far they’ve been rewarded with pure mediocrity at every level, and that includes last season where Watson looked awful through six games to close out the year.

To start the season, Watson is completing 55% of his es and has two touchdowns, two interceptions and three fumbles while taking eight sacks and committing multiple facemask penalties along the way. Two of his turnovers turned into 6 points for the opposition. If you asked Gainsvillesown on X (Watson’s suspected burner ), they’d say the offensive line and play calling were to blame, but any objective outsider would place plenty of the responsibility on Watson, who is holding the ball way too long, making poor decisions and struggling with accuracy.

The loss of Nick Chubb looms large against a stout Titans run defense, and it’s hard to believe Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will be difference makers in his absence. Watson will have to put together his first truly strong performance as a Brown if they’re going to cover against a Titans team that suffocates the ground attack, and I won’t be a believer until something materializes.

Expert Week 3 Pick: Titans +3.5

Best Spread Line: +3.5 (-115) on FanDuel, BetMGM

Best Moneyline: +160 on PointsBet

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Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders (+6.5)

We backed the Bills last week after everyone was down on them following that Week 1 loss to the Jets. They promptly dispatched the Raiders 38-10, which isn’t entirely surprising since the Raiders stink and had just beaten an arguably even worse Broncos team. But this looks like one of those games that could be more competitive than it appears on paper. Washington has a good rush, can force Josh Allen into some bad decisions to keep things close, and we saw this offense function well against what was supposed to be a stout Broncos defense last Sunday.

I’m certainly not saying that Sam Howell will outduel Allen, but Washington is a pretty sound team in the trenches on both sides of the ball, especially with Chase Young back and looking great against the Broncos. I honestly might sprinkle a little on Commanders moneyline at +240 on FanDuel, but I wouldn’t ask you to be so crazy. Give me Commanders +6.5 at home.

Expert Week 3 Pick: Commanders +6.5

Best Spread Line: +6.5 (-108) on Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings

Best Moneyline: +230 on Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

I refuse to believe that the Chiefs offense is going to continue to be as flat as they’ve been through the first two weeks. I think we can all agree on that, and their 30-point implied total would suggest the same. These 12.5 points are a lot to lay even on a great team, but the Bears have been dreadful. Justin Fields has been pressured on over 47% of his dropbacks, sacked 10 times and is holding onto the ball way too long. He also ran for only 3 yards in Week 2.

I don’t know how much easier life is going to get for Fields in Week 3 on the road. Chris Jones returned for Kansas City last week and was purely dominant, tormenting Trevor Lawrence all game despite being on a pitch count. How can we expect the Bears offensive line to hold up on Sunday? Adding insult to injury, they just lost starting left tackle Braxton Jones to the IR and have already been without Teven Jenkins. And let’s not overlook the fact that despite the Chiefs’ sluggish start on offense, their defense has held Jared Goff and Lawrence to 14 and 9 points on offense, respectively.

There’s also the issue of Chicago’s defensive coordinator Alan Williams abruptly reg earlier this week, followed by wild rumors and speculation surrounding the actual reason for his departure. This Bears team appears to be moving in the wrong direction on all levels, making this a pretty nice spot to back their opponent.

In my Week 3 Picks For Every Game video on our OddsShopper YouTube channel (linked below), I talked about a three-team, 10-point teaser involving the Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys. The 49ers already played, but I don’t hate a two-team, 6-point teaser with the Chiefs and Cowboys (-12.5 to -6.5) if you don’t want to lay the 12.5. Either way, I like the Chiefs to win big on Sunday.

Expert Week 3 Pick: Chiefs (-12.5) OR Chiefs + Cowboys 6-Point Teaser

Best Line: Same Everywhere