The Dallas Cowboys will line up against the lowly Arizona Cardinals this week. It’s been a rocky week for Dallas, as the Cowboys lost star cornerback Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL, but his injury hasn’t moved the line at all. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Cowboys-Cardinals betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!
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Cowboys-Cardinals Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 3
Cowboys-Cardinals Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Cowboys: -700 | Cardinals: +500
Cowboys -12.5: -110 | Cardinals +12.5: -110
Over 42.5: -115 | Under 42.5: -105
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Cowboys-Cardinals Pick & Prediction
The Dallas Cowboys are off to an electric start this season. After rolling both New York teams, they’ll get another layup matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are 12.5-point home underdogs this weekend. The Cardinals have been surprisingly plucky this year, keeping things close against the Commanders and Giants, but they lack the talent necessary to actually, you know, win. That’s not a slight to quarterback Josh Dobbs, who has far exceeded expectations, but an indict to a front office that seemed to have sincerely believed Kyler Murray could just carry a bad roster.
Through two weeks, the Cowboys are a clear offensive threat, while the Cardinals are mid at best. Dallas ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play, but they rank third in the all-important EPA per dropback. Quarterback Dak Prescott has an elite alpha receiver in CeeDee Lamb to work with, and while his offensive line has been somewhat disappointing thus far, ranking only 25th in -block win rate (49%), they’ll face a Cardinals defensive front that ranks 29th in -rush win rate (32%). Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 21st in EPA per play and 18th in EPA per dropback. That’s a credit to Dobbs, but it’s also not sustainable against this defense.
The Cowboys may have the NFL’s best defense this year. They lead the NFL in EPA allowed per play by a healthy margin, and they have absolutely stifled opposing quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have a dismal 33.3% success rate on ing plays against the Cowboys. It helps that the Cowboys have the league’s best rush in -rush win rate (60%). That production is unsustainable — the league’s best team by -rush win rate scored only 52% last year — but it’s sustainable against a Cardinals defensive line that ranks 24th in the metric (49%).
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I don’t want to buy Dallas to cover the 12. They should — they beat the Giants by 40 and the Jets by 30 — but we’ve seen the Cardinals pull enough magic out of their helmets so far this season that I’m just going to keep this to a six-point teaser pick that gets us under the key number of seven. Arizona’s offense has been able to depress scoring by keeping their opponents off the field, helping them go 2-0 ATS so far. Dallas has gone an impressive 31-24 ATS since 2020, including an NFL-best 10-4 as a road favorite, but they’ve won those games by an average of +5.1 and +11.5, respectively — not quite enough to cover this spread.
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Cowboys-Cardinals NFL Week 3 Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (Teaser Pick) at DraftKings
