Patrick Mahomes is in rare territory — unknown, to be exact. It’s the first time he’s on the road this deep in the playoffs, catching points on top of it. Buffalo has been a juggernaut over the final stretch of the regular season then destroyed Pittsburgh in the Wild Card. The Bills have massive injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball, and that might be just the opening needed for Mahomes. Josh Allen will try to improve on his own legacy but faces the one thing that’s gone right for the Chiefs all year: Their defense. Here’s the best Chiefs-Bills same-game parlay.
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Chiefs-Bills Same-Game Parlay Picks
Leg 1. Chiefs Moneyline (NFL Betting Pick)
So much of these games come down to quarterback play and coaching. Andy Reid and Mahomes have seen nearly everything in the NFL, or they’ve done stuff nobody else has seen. The biggest hang-up with the Chiefs offense doesn’t have anything to do with Mahomes, at least internally, rather the guys he relies on when throwing the ball. If any part of that stabilizes against an already banged-up Bills defense, the Chiefs are going to look like the defending Super Bowl champs.
In fact, the main difference will be on defense, as this unit is a far cry from the one that gave up points to Philadelphia last year. It pressures the quarterback and makes teams double think how often they want to run. Josh Allen will run a little more, mostly by design, as Kansas City will make it increasingly difficult for James Cook to run. If the Bills are down a bunch of guys on defense, it makes it infinitely easier for someone like Travis Kelce to reappear as a dominant force on the field.
Mahomes is still one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play the game. He’s pulled rabbits out of hats before and doesn’t fear the Bills nor Buffalo fans. The Chiefs are 11-1 against the spread when Mahomes and his crew are underdogs, including a perfect 10-0 against the spread on the road. Kansas City won eight of those games outright. Add Andy Reid’s stellar record as a dog in the playoffs and this one has “upset” written across the end zone.
Leg 2. Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
The Bills still have to worry about Mahomes throwing the ball even though his receiving corps isn’t what it used to be. He’s established a connection with Rashee Rice and still has old faithful in Kelce. But Mahomes’ best weapon on Sunday may actually be his legs, and this rushing yards number is simply too low.
Road games aren’t a problem for the Chiefs nor Mahomes — they finished 7-2 away from Arrowhead, winning and covering both games in which they were dogs. Mahomes is fully aware of letdown mode around him, so pushing scrambles to gain on the ground remains an essential part of the Chiefs winning games.
Mobile quarterbacks run more in the playoffs, anyone with legs will take it upon themselves to move the chains. Mahomes is no exception to the rule, and he will run on Sunday. He only needed two carries last week against the Dolphins to hit this number, and he should be as aggressive this week as Buffalo should be missing defensive players.
Leg 3. Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
Allen is still the Bills’ most dangerous rusher, and Buffalo can’t stay in this game without his legs. He’s hit double-digit carries in two of his last three games and should clear that today. The Chiefs have been stellar against No. 1 receivers, feeding into an already down year for Stefon Diggs. That forces Allen to run more, even by design. The Bills should have at least six plays fired up that are specifically asking Allen to run with the football, not to mention pocket breakdowns and scrambles.
Allen has gone over this number comfortably in each of his past two games. He torched the Steelers for 74 yards on the ground. Much like Mahomes, this is simply about keeping the ball in Buffalo’s best player’s hands. Both quarterbacks are a threat to make throws off scrambles at any time, and while injury should fuel Mahomes running, Allen will do it out of circumstance. The Bills are going to find out fast that Cook needs relief from pressure of the Chiefs stacking the box. Allen hitting 60 rushing yards does just that and keeps the Bills in the game. Good thing we only need 43.
Final Chiefs-Bills Same-Game Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Chiefs Moneyline
Leg 2: Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
Leg 3: Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
= +625 at DraftKings
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