Both favorites moved on yesterday, although only San Francisco made it interesting. The weather clearly impacted both games, something that won’t be the case for Sunday’s opener in Detroit. The indoor track should help a couple of things, namely the scoring and Tampa Bay throwing the football. This is the first of two games, each with spreads of less than 7 points — much different than the 9.5-point spreads we saw yesterday. Detroit comes in with a huge playoff win trying to hold off a dangerous Buccaneers team. Here’s the best Buccaneers-Lions same-game parlay!
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Buccaneers-Lions Same-Game Parlay Picks
Leg 1. Lions -5.5 Alt (NFL Betting Pick)
The line currently sits at -6 on BetMGM for the Lions but moves to 6.5 when building the same game parlay. The best move here is to drop this a full point so we are covered by two key numbers in 7 and 6. Detroit is the better team — hard to argue that — but it’s deeper than just talent. The Buccaneers looked fantastic last week, but that was against a lifeless Eagles team with no interest in playing football. Tampa’s offense stalled in their prior two games, including against the Panthers. It just isn’t that good outside of throwing the ball, something Detroit will make much more difficult than Philadelphia did.
The Lions are 7-2 at home and win in Detroit so long as they win the turnover battle. Tampa’s defense is still struggling, especially in the secondary, where Detroit has improved over the past few games. The Lions won’t suffer any letdown; the players are still focused as the city of Detroit celebrated. Dan Campbell doesn’t seem like the type of coach to let that stuff get to his players.
Both quarterbacks are motivated to reestablish their own name and legacy in the NFL. Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are going to throw a ton in this game, but only one gets to move on while the other turns back into a pumpkin. We are betting on Goff’s magic cleats fitting, riding Detroit to the NFC Championship Game.
Leg 2. Amon-Ra St. Brown 90+ Receiving Yards (NFL Player Prop)
The only way Amon-Ra St. Brown will not dominate in this game is if the Lions choose to go another way. That doesn’t seem likely since St. Brown has the best matchup across the board for either team. Tampa’s secondary is suspect, and it will not generate nearly enough pressure on Goff to slow them down, so expect St. Brown to be involved right away.
Ever since Detroit’s loss to the Bears in mid-December, St. Brown has hit 90-plus receiving yards in five straight games — four of those going over 100 yards. He’s been targeted at least nine times in four of those games, with the other one still netting eight grabs. Goff loves him, and so do we.
The Bucs come in off one of the worst circumstances to bet on, a bottom-feeding division winner taking down a quitter, only to face a better team on the road and indoors. Mayfield and Mike Evans are certainly going to try, but between the revamped Lions defense and the Bucs’ inability to stop anyone, Detroit should cruise, and St. Brown will be doing the driving.
Leg 3. Chris Godwin 60+ Receiving Yards (NFL Player Prop)
Let’s not make the Lions defense out to be any Legion of Boom; it has just improved by allowing fewer points. That’s tightened up in the red zone as there’s still plenty of bend with this Lions D. Mayfield and the offense have been able to move the ball downfield, specifically with Evans. The underneath part of the field should open a little more for a Rachaad White, who has been underutilized in the game when Tampa is winning.
With the expectation that the Buccaneers will not be in the lead, or at least not for long, Mayfield is going to have to make some throws. The Lions are going to make it difficult for Evans. If Tampa is smart, it will move Chris Godwin around a bunch, taking advantage of a weaker matchup on the outside. While he’s missed this mark in the past two games, hitting it in three straight prior shows how dangerous Godwin can be.
During that three-game stretch where he just went over 60 yards, Godwin was able to do it with a couple of big grabs or through volume. Both are attainable here, especially when facing a lesser defensive back.
Final Buccaneers-Lions Same-Game Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Detroit -5.5 Alt
Leg 2: Amon-Ra St. Brown 90+ Receiving Yards
Leg 3: Chris Godwin 60+ Receiving Yards
= +425 at BetMGM
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