In what is setting up to be the worst primetime game of the year so far, the Denver Broncos will take on the injury-riddled New Orleans Saints. The total is 37. Sometimes, the best way to get through these games is with some action of our own, and, while you’re here, I recommend thumbing through our guides to NFL expert picks!
Broncos-Saints Player Prop Pick for Spencer Rattler
I’m deeply skeptical of quarterback Spencer Rattler, but that isn’t going to stop me from playing an over for him in Week 7. Rattler will take on the Denver Broncos, who blitz at a league-high clip of 41.8%. With numerous offensive linemen down for the count for New Orleans, this matchup is a recipe for disaster — at least for ing plays.
Denver’s blitz-heavy scheme hasn’t been without consequence. In Week 1, Denver allowed 30 rushing yards to Geno Smith. They held Justin Fields to a most 27 in Week 2 (and Baker Mayfield never scrambled in Week 3), but since then, Aaron Rodgers (26) and Gardner Minshew (22) found success on the ground; Justin Herbert (4) didn’t need to run much in Week 6.
Rattler faced a similarly blitz-heavy Tampa Bay defense (29.5% blitz rate) in his debut. He scrambled three times for 27 yards, including a 16-year scramble for a first. Rattler was also a positive rusher in college (where sacks count as negative rushing yards) and adds far more mobility than either Derek Carr or Jake Haener.
Finally, mix in the laundry list of Saints skill-position players who will miss this one — Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave and likely Taysom Hill — and we’ve got a recipe for loads of scrambles. Back the over 20.5 rushing yards for -113 at FanDuel. The over 21.5 will cost you -116 at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore.
Broncos-Saints Player Prop Pick: Spencer Rattler Over 20.5 Rushing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Broncos-Saints Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
If we cash this Broncos-Saints anytime touchdown prop, you can get 70% off Portfolio EV with code “THATS6” for the 24 hours following the score!
Before I proceed into my anytime touchdown pick, note that “No Touchdown Scorer” is +4000 at DraftKings. With two shaky rookie quarterbacks leading both offenses in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler and very questionable wide receiver rooms on both sides, those odds are certainly enticing.
But it’s likelier than not that someone will actually find the end zone, and, if someone does, the books say the likeliest person to do so is Alvin Kamara. Universally, his odds are worse than +100, with the best available number sitting at -105. I don’t hate that bet, but I am skeptical of the number of red-zone trips the Saints will get.
Instead, let’s roll with one member of the favored Denver Broncos to find the end zone. Veteran wide recevier Courtland Sutton leads the team in red-zone targets (9). He ranks sixth in the NFL in red-zone targets, too — however, those targets have led to only two receiving touchdowns.
When projecting Sutton’s anytime touchdown scorer odds, I trust opportunity over production, and it’s clear that Sutton is going to get every opportunity to score when the Broncos have a red-zone ing down. Now, the 48.9% catchable target rate is far, far less than we’d like, but at +255 odds on DraftKings (and +226 odds on Pinnacle), let’s take a shot.
Broncos-Saints Anytime Touchdown Bet: Courtland Sutton +260 at DraftKings
