The Minnesota Vikings will get to host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the 49ers are looking for some vengeance after a rough loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 7 picks here. Let’s dig into Monday’s 49ers-Vikings betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 7 bet!
49ers-Vikings Pick & Betting Prediction | Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
49ers: -310 | Vikings: +250
49ers -7: -105 | Vikings +7: -115
Over 43: -110 | Under 43: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Monday, Oct. 23 at 8:15 p.m. ET
49ers-Vikings Pick & Prediction
On Monday Night Football, we’ve got the San Francisco 49ers in a buy-low spot after their loss to the Cleveland Browns last week. We also have the Minnesota Vikings, who won’t have Justin Jefferson, led by primetime Kirk Cousins. The trade deadline is fast approaching, and the 2-4 Vikings look increasingly like sellers. They may not make many roster-altering moves before this week’s edition of Monday Night Football, but they don’t need to for the 49ers to be a sharp bet. You’ll find San Francisco listed as only a 6.5-point favorite in some spots. That’s a mistake.
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The Vikings were already a bad offensive team before Jefferson’s injury, but now they’re much worse. Minnesota ranks 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per rush and 19th in EPA per dropback this year. But last week, in their first game without Jefferson, the Vikings ranked 24th in EPA per rush and 20th in EPA per dropback against the terrible Chicago Bears defense, which, on the season, ranks 15th and 31st, respectively. The Vikings must now take on a 49ers defense that ranks 23rd and second in those metrics.
San Francisco may struggle to stop the run, but that’s about the only weakness the 49ers have. The 49ers rank seventh in EPA per rush and first in EPA per dropback. Their defensive front ranks ninth in both -rush win rate (49%) and run-stop win rate (33%). The injuries to running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are concerning, but it sounds like McCaffrey is going to play. Even if he can’t go, the 49ers still have Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, both of whom should punish a Minnesota defense that ranks 17th in EPA allowed per dropback.
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Getting the 49ers anywhere under the key number of seven is a great deal. Each of San Francisco’s five wins on the year came by at least seven points. The 49ers are 61-51-1 ATS under head coach Kyle Shanahan, and they’re 29-17 ATS since 2021. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 9-13-2 ATS under head coach Kevin O’Connell. They are 4-9 ATS at home and 0-2 as a home underdog. And again, we’ve got primetime Kirk Cousins under center, and his career er rating dips from 97.9 to 96 in primetime and 85.2 on Monday nights.
49ers-Vikings NFL Week 7 Pick: San Francisco -6.5 -115 at FanDuel
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