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NFL Week 7 Predictions: Picks for & More
Jaguars-Saints NFL Week 7 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Jaguars: +100 | Saints: -120
Jaguars +1: -110 | Saints -1: -110
Over 40: -110 | Under 40: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the New Orleans Saints in the Big Easy this Sunday, and the big story for this one is quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence suffered a knee injury last week against the Indianapolis Colts, but he is yet to be ruled out for Thursday Night Football. Plenty of positive press has come out about Lawrence’s progression throughout the week, but the Jaguars signed quarterback Nathan Rourke from their practice squad on Wednesday afternoon, which puts a considerable damper on things. Lawrence could be ruled out as soon as Wednesday’s injury report.
I’m backing the Saints to win this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football regardless of whether a likely injury-limited Lawrence plays. I have a lot of faith in the Jaguars, but they’re in a really bad spot — their offensive line is likely to be without Walker Little and Brandon Scherff, two of their best contributors on the interior, which could doom a unit that already ranked a dismal 32nd in -block win rate (44%) and 30th in run-block win rate (66%). Although poor blocking didn’t stop the Jaguars against the Falcons, Bills or Colts, it certainly didn’t help, and it likely contributed to Lawrence’s injury.
The Saints aren’t that good, but they’re better than the banged-up Jaguars. They’re dealing with plenty of injuries on their own roster, to be fair. Offensive linemen James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk are likely out, as is linebacker Demario Davis. Still, first-round offensive tackle Trevor Penning and Cesar Ruiz are more serviceable replacements than whoever Jacksonville will trust off the bench. New Orleans ranks 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per rush and 17th in EPA per dropback, which trails Jacksonville slightly in both metrics (the Jaguars rank 21st and 16th, respectively). However, the Saints have the advantage on defense: New Orleans ranks fourth in EPA allowed per rush and sixth in EPA allowed per dropback while Jacksonville ranks second and 10th, respectively.
Both teams’ injury-depleted offensive lines will cause problems, but instead of playing the under, I’m just trusting the Saints to win this home game outright. New Orleans is 4-2 as a home favorite under head coach Dennis Allen. Jacksonville is 3-6 as a road underdog under head coach Doug Pederson. Although the odds only minimally favor New Orleans, I would make the moneyline -150 if Lawrence plays. With him possibly missing this one, the closing number could wind up well below -150 if the Jaguars turn to backup quarterback C.J. Beathard.
Jaguars-Saints NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: New Orleans Moneyline -120 at Bet365
NFL Week 7 Predictions for Sunday Afternoon
Lions-Ravens NFL Week 7 Prediction
The Lions will take on the Ravens in Baltimore this weekend. I’m targeting the total for this one: these are two of the NFL’s slowest and run-heaviest teams. Detroit ranks 30th in seconds per play (30.3) and fourth in rushing play percentage (46.8%). Baltimore ranks 28th (29.4) and 31st (48.2%), respectively. With Lions running back David Montgomery either limited or out, Detroit may a bit more, but they’ll have to turn to less efficient options when they do run.
The total is sitting between 42 and 42.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. I’m buying the under on that at the standard juice. Sure, these teams are combining to average 50.2 points per game — they’re also combining to allow only 34. Detroit’s offense is also averaging six fewer points per game on the road. Quarterback Jared Goff is generally a less efficient quarterback on the road, too: his QBR dips from 113.3 to 97.7 when playing away from Detroit this year; it dipped from 109.3 to 87.4 last year.
Lions-Ravens NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Under 42 -110 at DraftKings
Browns-Colts NFL Week 7 Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts just got shellacked by the Jacksonville Jaguars with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew II under center. Minshew will have to take the reins again this week, and he’ll take on the brutal Cleveland Browns defense. Cleveland’s offense has some serious question markets, especially at quarterback, but the team’s defense ranks eighth in EPA allowed per rush and first in EPA allowed per dropback. As a result, we’re fading the Colts, whose team total of 19.5 points is surprisingly high.
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Cleveland’s defense will be just too much for the Colts to handle. The Browns have allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (15.4) in new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s first season. Their defensive front ranks seventh in -rush win rate (52%) and first in run-stop win rate (40%). Defensive end Myles Garrett has been absolutely unstoppable — he ranks third among eligible players in -rush win rate (30%) and first in run-stop win rate (40%). Although he often faces double teams, those open up chances for Cleveland’s other players to do some damage.
Browns-Colts NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Indianapolis Team Total Under 19.5 -110 at Caesars
Cardinals-Seahawks NFL Week 7 Prediction
The Arizona Cardinals get to visit the Seattle Seahawks this weekend, and I don’t think it’ll be pretty for Josh Dobbs and company. Although the Cardinals opened the return window for quarterback Kyler Murray, it’s unlikely (but possible!) that he’ll make his return so soon. But even though Murray would improve this offense, he won’t improve the defense. Arizona ranks a dreadful 24th in EPA allowed per rush and 28th in EPA allowed per dropback. The team has also coughed up the sixth-most points per Game (27).
Seattle’s offense has some flaws, but the Seahawks remain one of the NFL’s most effective offensive teams. Seattle ranks second in EPA per rush and 12th in EPA per dropback. Quarterback Geno Smith ranks a steady 12th in both adjusted EPA per dropback and Ben Baldwin’s EPA/OE composite score. With Seattle ranked 10th in seconds per play (28.1) and Arizona ranked seventh (27.4), the Seahawks should get plenty of chances to put points on the board.
Cardinals-Seahawks NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Seattle Team Total Over 26.5 -120 at DraftKings
Packers-Broncos NFL Week 7 Prediction
The Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos will square off after bitter losses for both teams. The Broncos nearly got shut out by the Chiefs last week, while the Packers got knocked down by the Raiders two weeks ago. Quarterback Jordan Love and the Packers have since had two weeks to lick their wounds, and I expect them to come out firing against the NFL’s least efficient defense. Denver ranks a disastrous 30th in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.
Magnifying Denver’s on-field problems is the front office’s focus on the future. rushers Frank Clark and Randy Gregory have both been shipped off, and the Broncos now rank 31st in -rush win rate (32%). Green Bay’s offense could be better — the Packers rank 14th in both EPA per rush and dropback — but it’s good enough to go off on the road against this defense. It’s still unclear whether running back Aaron Jones will play, but the extra rest may have been enough for him to suit up this week
Packers-Broncos NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Green Bay Team Total Over 23.5 +102 at DraftKings
Dolphins-Eagles NFL Week 7 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Dolphins: +110 | Eagles: -130
Dolphins +2: -110 | Eagles -2: -110
Over 52: -110 | Under 52: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 8:20 p.m. ET
What’s this — an actually good Sunday Night Football matchup? After last weekend’s borderline unwatchable Giants-Bills game, in which offensive mishaps led to just 23 points getting put on the board, this Sunday’s Dolphins-Eagles contest is a welcome reprieve. Both sides have looked effective on offense but have struggled on defense, leading the books to list this total at 52. Given some key injuries to Philadelphia’s defense and Miami’s overall poor defensive play, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one tick up even higher before kickoff. They are a combined 7-5 to the over this season.
Miami’s offense is the most efficient in football. Mike McDaniel has crafted an attack that’s nearly impossible to defend because of several high-speed weapons. Although running back De’Von Achane is now sidelined, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still available, as is running back Raheem Mostert. Nine of the 20 fastest speeds recorded this season were set by Dolphins players. Six were recorded by Hill and Mostert combined. Miami ranks first in EPA per rush and second in EPA per dropback as a function of their lightning-quick speed and McDaniel’s sharp scheming.
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Philadelphia’s defense has some bright spots, but it hasn’t performed as well as it did last year, and injuries are becoming a problem. The Eagles rank only 18th in EPA allowed per rush and 13th in EPA allowed per dropback. The defensive line is still dominant, as the Eagles rank sixth in -rush win rate (53%) and second in run-stop win rate (36%), but star rookie Jalen Carter is now injured, as is rotational defensive tackle Marlon Tuipulotu. Carter missed Thursday and Friday’s practice last week with an ankle injury and ended up sitting out against the Jets. He leads all interior defensive linemen in -rush win rate, so if he remains out, the Eagles’ defensive front will suffer.
I’m backing the Dolphins to put plenty of points on the board on Sunday. In addition to Carter, the Eagles could be without safeties Reed Blankenship and Sydney Brown along with cornerbacks Darius Slay and Bradley Roby. Fellow cornerback Avonte Maddox remains on injured reserve with a torn pec. Miami’s team total sits at only 25.5 points in some places, and while the Eagles have a formidable defensive front, only the Bills and Patriots have kept the Dolphins under 26. Miami is averaging 37.2 points per game. Trust them to keep things rolling in primetime.
Dolphins-Eagles NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: Miami Team Total Over 25.5 -108 at FanDuel
49ers-Vikings NFL Week 7 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
49ers: -305 | Vikings: +245
49ers -7: +100 | Vikings +7: -120
Over 44: -110 | Under 44: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Monday, Oct. 23 at 8:15 p.m. ET
On Monday Night Football, we’ve got the San Francisco 49ers in a buy-low spot after their loss to the Cleveland Browns last week. We also have the Minnesota Vikings, who won’t have Justin Jefferson, led by primetime Kirk Cousins. The trade deadline is fast approaching, and the 2-4 Vikings look increasingly like sellers. They may not make many roster-altering moves before this week’s edition of Monday Night Football, but they don’t need to for the 49ers to be a sharp bet. You’ll find San Francisco listed as only a 6.5-point favorite in some spots. That’s a mistake.
The Vikings were already a bad offensive team before Jefferson’s injury, but now they’re much worse. Minnesota ranks 22nd in EPA per rush and 19th in EPA per dropback this year. But last week, in their first game without Jefferson, the Vikings ranked 24th in EPA per rush and 20th in EPA per dropback against the terrible Chicago Bears defense, which, on the season, ranks 15th and 31st, respectively. The Vikings must now take on a 49ers defense that ranks 23rd and second in those metrics.
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San Francisco may struggle to stop the run, but that’s about the only weakness the 49ers have. The 49ers rank seventh in EPA per rush and first in EPA per dropback. Their defensive front ranks ninth in both -rush win rate (49%) and run-stop win rate (33%). The injuries to running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are concerning, but the 49ers haven’t ruled out either player for Monday Night Football, and the extra day of rest could move the needle somewhat. But even if they can’t go, the 49ers still have Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, both of whom should punish a Minnesota defense that ranks 17th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Getting the 49ers anywhere under the key number of seven is a great deal. Each of San Francisco’s five wins on the year came by at least seven points. The 49ers are 61-51-1 ATS under head coach Kyle Shanahan, and they’re 29-17 ATS since 2021. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 9-13-2 ATS under head coach Kevin O’Connell. They are 4-9 ATS at home and 0-2 as a home underdog. And again, we’ve got primetime Kirk Cousins under center, and his career er rating dips from 97.9 to 96 in primetime and 85.2 on Monday nights.
z49ers-Vikings NFL Week 7 Pick & Prediction: San Francisco -6.5 -110 at BetMGM
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