Happy Friday and post-Thanksgiving! We’re diving straight into college football action today, and I have a bet I’m feeling good about. Let’s talk about my favorite Nebraska-Iowa pick, and visit OddsShopper for more FREE +EV college football bets!
Free College Football Expert Pick Today: Nebraska-Iowa
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Iowa is currently favored by 3 points at home, with the line sitting at -110 on Caesars. It’s not the most glamorous game, but after breaking it down, I’m confident the Hawkeyes will cover. Let me tell you why.
Free CFB Expert Pick: Iowa -3 (-110)
First off, let’s talk about the fundamentals. Iowa’s defense, while not as elite as in years past, is still among the best in the Big Ten. It has been able to keep opponents from scoring, and that’s been the key to its success this season. Despite offensive struggles, Iowa leans heavily on its defense, and against a team like Nebraska, that’s a huge advantage.
Nebraska has been struggling offensively, especially on the road. It is 6-5 on the season, but it has lost four of its last 5 games, with its only road win coming against Purdue (and, well, everybody beats Purdue). While it has faced tough teams like Indiana and Ohio State, its offense has been lacking, and its defense hasn’t been able to pick up the slack.
Nebraska’s freshman quarterback, Heinrich Haarberg, has shown flashes of potential, but he’s still making rookie mistakes. Going up against a strong Iowa defense is going to be tough for him, especially on the road in a hostile environment.
Iowa, on the other hand, has some things working in its favor. Yes, its offense isn’t anything to write home about, but it has made significant strides this season. The running game has been solid, and while its ing attack leaves a lot to be desired, it can grind out enough offense to win this game.
But what really sets Iowa apart in this matchup is the intangibles. Iowa’s turnover margin is excellent, and that’s a product of its low-variance style of play. It doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, and when facing an offense like Nebraska’s that is prone to self-inflicted errors, that’s a big advantage. Iowa is also first in the nation in penalties per game, which means it doesn’t beat itself with costly mistakes. Nebraska, meanwhile, is outside the top 100 in that department. That’s huge, especially in a game where both offenses are going to struggle to put up points.
In a game that could get ugly, the little things are going to make the difference. Iowa is the better team on both sides of the ball, and it has the edge in key areas.
