Whether you’re enjoying the holiday or just another start to the workweek, tonight’s action is a perfect way to wrap up an incredible college football season. We have the National Championship on deck, and I’m here to share my favorite play for the game. Let’s kick off the week with a win on this FREE Ohio State-Notre Dame CFB pick. Also, check out even more +EV college football bets here at OddsShopper!
Free CFB Championship Pick Today: Ohio State-Notre Dame
Yesterday wasn’t the best day in the NFL — missing the Eagles -6.5 thanks to a couple of missed extra points was a rough beat. Still, the live under came through in Discord, and we closed out the week in the green overall.
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Free CFB Expert Pick: Ohio State-Notre Dame Under 45.5
If I had to pick a side, I’d lean toward Ohio State, but the under is my favorite bet for this game.
Ohio State has looked nothing short of dominant in recent weeks. After a statement win against Tennessee, it followed it up by obliterating Oregon in one of the most lopsided games of the year. Its win over Texas in the semifinal showed how this team can control the pace, grind out tough possessions and make timely plays on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, Ohio State has been exceptional. Its front seven is nearly impossible to run against, and its secondary is aggressive and disciplined. This is a unit that ranks at the top of most defensive categories, and it is playing like it. The key question is whether Notre Dame can win on the outside against this secondary. My guess is probably not.
On offense, Ohio State is stacked with talent. Jeremiah Smith headlines a loaded receiving corps, and its running backs are as balanced as they come. Will Howard’s job is simple — don’t turn the ball over. If he avoids mistakes, this team will be tough to beat, and the under will look even better.
Credit where it’s due: Notre Dame’s win against Penn State was gutsy. It made plays on special teams, capitalized on turnovers and pulled off some big moments when it mattered most. But can it replicate that magic against Ohio State?
Notre Dame thrives on chaos — kickoff returns, defensive touchdowns and other high-variance plays have been its bread and butter. While it is well-coached and disciplined, this Ohio State defense poses challenges it hasn’t faced before. Riley Leonard has shown he’s a capable quarterback, but this might be a bridge too far.
If Notre Dame wins, it’ll likely come down to a handful of game-changing plays. However, its inability to consistently win one-on-one matchups on the outside or establish a steady run game makes this a tough spot for its offense.
I’m expecting Ohio State to dictate the tempo here. This team is built to force punts, limit explosive plays and grind down opponents with methodical drives. If Notre Dame struggles to move the ball consistently, there’s a real chance it will score fewer than 10 points.
Ohio State doesn’t need to run up the score — it is more than happy to play a low-variance game that prioritizes control over flash. A final score in the range of 28-10 or 27-13 feels very plausible, and that fits perfectly with under 45.5.
Best Ohio State-Notre Dame Bet: Under 45.5 (-110, DraftKings)
