Woohoo for rivalry week! Except the problem is that a lot of the rivalries this year are either mismatched or two bad teams. So the hostility may only be a simmering one rather than one with a lot of stakes. Alas, we’re mining Underdog value to find the best Week 14 CFB Underdog Optimizer.
CFB Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
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Chamon Metayer Less Than 27.5 Receiving Yards
Arizona State’s big rivalry game after a big win over BYU is an intrastate matchup with the 4-7 powerhouse that is Arizona.
Now, Arizona State can’t afford to screw around here; it has knocked off two straight ranked opponents and has a real shot of sneaking into the Playoff if they get a lot of help. That said, Arizona is not good and Arizona State, by all s, should take care of business quickly.
Metayer is the Sun Devils’ No. 3 leading receiver, but he has only gone over 27.5 yards thrice this season and just once since mid-September. Arizona State can put this game away early and turn to the run, thus limiting Metayer’s chances. We’re going less than 27.5 and giving it a 56% chance of hitting.
Luke Bottari Less Than 152.5 ing Yards
This is our lone Friday play, so if you’re tailing this entry, be sure to get it in before the 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
Utah has cratered since the loss of Cameron Rising and is on a seven-game losing streak. Now, UCF is no better at 4-7 and having lost seven of eight, so this is actually an even matchup.
That said, Bottari is Utah’s fifth attempt at a starting quarterback with the other four all going down. He’s a senior, so good for him for sticking around this long (two years, 21 attempts long). But we’re never riding higher than 152.5 ing yards on a fifth-stringer. The lower gets a 55% win percentage.
Jamarion Miller Less than 50.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s keep the vibes in the gutter — how about them Tide rolling their way to an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma? This team still has things to play for given it is 13th in the AP Poll and one spot out of the Playoff if that holds, but the feelings are not great in Alabama right now.
Miller has been a major player in that he is Alabama’s leading non-quarterback rusher. That said, he has not been over 50 yards rushing since Sept. 14. Auburn is not particularly good, though, and this is rivalry week, hence the somewhat heightened 50.5 projection.
We’re still going lower. Miller is sharing too much rushing usage with other players, and the lower has a 55% chance of winning.
All together, this three-pick Standard entry earns a 16% chance of a 6x payout for 1% +EV.
