Football is finally back. Yes, we’ve had the NFL preseason to bet on over the last two weeks, but there wasn’t much on the line in those games beyond roster spots and depth chart order. Now we have playoff implications, especially with two ranked teams, No. 13 Notre Dame and No. 6 USC scheduled to play in Week 0. Let’s dive into my college football Week 0 predictions so that we can talk about the best Week 0 picks for Navy-Notre Dame, Hawaii-Vanderbilt and more college football action.
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College Football Week 0 Predictions: Best Navy-Notre Dame, Hawaii-Vanderbilt Picks
Navy-Notre Dame College Football Week 0 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Navy: +800 | Notre Dame: -1400
Navy +20.5: -115 | Notre Dame -20.5: -105
Over 50.5: -105 | Under 50.5: -115
For updated Navy-Notre Dame odds and picks, click here.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Navy Midshipmen in the first game of the 2023 college football season. It isn’t projected to be especially competitive — the Irish are a pretty massive favorite, after all, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some value on the betting markets. We absolutely must have action on the first consequential football game of the year. Notre Dame will look to get the Sam Hartman era started with a bang, but bettors shouldn’t expect a ton of offensive fireworks early — these are two of the slowest programs in the FBS.
The pace should depress scoring to a meaningful degree. Notre Dame ranked 114th in seconds per play (28.2) and 16th in average time of possession (32:11) last season. Likewise, Navy ranked 128th (29.9) and third (34:50) in those metrics. Although the Midshipmen made a coaching change, it wasn’t a big one — they promoted defensive coordinator Brian Newberry to the head coach spot and brought in Grant Chesnut from Kennesaw State, who runs a similarly slow, run-heavy option-based offense.
When these teams played last November, Notre Dame was a 16.5-point favorite and the game had a closing total of just 40.5. Notre Dame won that game but barely, taking down Navy 35-32 for a final total of 67 points. Now, Notre Dame is a 20.5-point favorite and the game owns a total of 50.5. This raises the question of whether last year’s performance and the additions of Hartman and Chesnut are worth adding 10 points to the total. A look at last year’s game reveals that several big plays, including two turnovers in a team’s own territory, were responsible for touchdowns. Scoring drives also took an abnormally low amount of time for both teams, especially early.
Although both Navy and Notre Dame should look more efficient on offense this year, the total has just gotten far too high. The Irish scored 31.8 points per game last year, slightly worse than their implied total (35.3), and primarily against much faster teams. Navy scored 23.3 points per game last year, slightly better than their implied total (15.3), but also primarily against much faster teams. The Midshipmen averaged only 17.3 points per game across teams that ranked bottom-20 in pace, of which they played three.
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Navy-Notre Dame Week 0 Pick: Under 50.5 -110 at Caesars
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