The stakes in college football are through the roof — we have a bunch of CFB Playoff games this weekend from which to make picks, and we’re turning to Underdog Optimizer.
CFB Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Looking for moreexpert CFB picks!
Jordan Hudson Lower Than 25.5 Receiving Yards
What a time to be an SMU Mustangs fan. Who would have thought that this team would get the green light to the CFB Playoff over Alabama when the season started? But hey, it’s deserved, and this ing game is darn efficient.
It may be a bit too efficient, actually, at least when targeting receiving yard projections. Hudson is third on SMU in receiving yards, but there are SIX other player with at least 300 receiving yards on the season. Now, there are injuries among that group, and Hudson has gone for more than 25.5 in five of the last six games.
That said, Penn State has a pretty good ing defense (16th in the country in yards ing allowed per game), and Stokastic’s CFB DFS projections have Hudson at 24.86 receiving yards. That amounts to a 56% chance of falling short of 25.5 on Saturday.
Chris Brazzell II Lower Than 26.5 Receiving Yards
We jump to the night CFB Playoff game to target a receiver who has almost the same yardage total as Hudson and a nearly identical projection.
If Penn State’s defense is pretty good, then Ohio State’s is elite as the No. 2 unit in college football. Only Texas allows fewer yards ing per game. And unlike Hudson, whose modest numbers on the season have been buoyed by late-season jumps in production, Brazzell’s come almost entirely from the first half of the year.
He had 54 yards in his last game, but prior to that, Brazzell went four straight without getting to 27 yards receiving. Projections have him getting 26.28 — just shy of the 26.5 number — giving him a 55% win rate on lower than 26.5 yards receiving.
Will Howard Less Than 1.5 ing Touchdowns
This is the hairiest play of our entry, but it still comes with a 55% win rate. Howard had at least two touchdowns in all but two games this year — the second game of the regular season and the last one. He has not had any streaks of falling below 1.5 touchdowns.
However, Ohio State is a hefty 7.5-point favorite, and the 46.5 total is the lowest of this weekend’s playoff games. That is knocking Howard’s touchdown projections on Stokastic to 1.34 and pushing our total entry to +EV territory.
Overall, these three picks together will pay out 6x if they all hit, and they have a 16% chance of cashing for us.
