After a weird week in the NBA that saw an in-season Cup Finals followed by a collective day off, we get a mild start to the weekend. There are just three games on tap tonight, but that’s hardly a representation of the edge available in the market. I’m far from the only one using and profiting off Portfolio EV this year, and smaller slates have been especially positive thanks to the tools. Here are some of the top NBA player prop picks I’m running with tonight from Portfolio EV!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Dec. 20
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
We are less than 60 days in the NBA season, and I’ve nearly hit my 100-unit goal. It’s been a free journey to follow as I track everything played off Portfolio EV. I got down nearly 90 bets last night and plan to scour the market for as much volume tonight. It’s been a key part of my success and why I’m up over 95 units on the year — that’s just from Portfolio EV, folks.
The beauty of what I’m doing, Nathan — and so many of you who have picked up your own journey — is that we have all seen progress. Profit comes with variance and a few storms to weather, but we’ve endured to the point of massive gains — all of us. Trust the process.
Our top bet on the board is Tyler Herro staying under 3.5 made 3-pointers. In fact, the next two plays are in the same exact market. The first thing that jumps out to me is the HROI — historical ROI. This made 3-pointers market on DraftKings is returning a 5.7% ROI over time. That’s pretty good.
Before we even get to the odds, we can see a massive advantage knowing we are entering a profitable market. It doesn’t matter if the play is over or under; the overall market is returning a solid profit. Just look at the slide below and see the wide gap between what DraftKings and the rest of the market is offering.
The +114 odds at DraftKings beat everyone else, including the -101 true odds. We apply the same winning logic from Portfolio EV to both Miles Bridges and Donovan Mitchell. One thing to about a market-based approach is to leave your ego at the door.
The market doesn’t care what Mitchell did last game, his last five or 10, nor if he’s “due” to break out. Mitchell staying under 3.5 3’s has great odds at -115 more than anything else. Bet the right price, win more tickets, build a bigger bankroll.
This is the easiest way to build a bankroll, to profit long term. Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
