Conference Championship Week is here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher! With conference supremacy and College Football Playoff spots hanging in the balance, the action on Underdog Optimizer.
CFB Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
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Ashton Jeanty Less Than 172.5 Rushing Yards
Few things in the 2024 college football season seem dumber than fading Ashton Jeanty — and we’re doing it for a conference championship game with Boise State chasing good playoff positioning. That may sound hairy to you, but this play is actually the No. 1 Underdog play in the Optimizer right now for any sport.
Yes, Jeanty is going to likely finish second in the Heisman race after running for well over 2,000 yards. Sure, he’s eclipsed 172.5 yards rushing in seven of his 12 games. And of course, Boise State is going to ride him to the Mountain West title come Hell or high water. But …
This game has a pretty high total of 57.5, and the Broncos are modest 4.5-point favorites. And with UNLV ranking 11th in all of college football in rushing yards allowed, game script speaks more to Boise State going slightly -heavier than it usually does.
Now, that doesn’t mean Jeanty won’t go off for 150-plus yards, as usual; Stokastic’s CFB DFS projections have him at 164.65 yards on 34.52 attempts. But that’s still well below the 173 he needs to hit the higher end here, so we’ll take lower than 172.5 yards at a 56% expected win rate. God help us all.
Dillon Bell Less Than 38.5 Receiving Yards
Now we move to Saturday for the SEC Championship Game, one that features two teams that aren’t all that desperate in Texas and Georgia. Now, a win for either would vault them up the CFB Playoff seeding, but both are virtual locks to at least make the playoffs.
Alas, the total here for this juggernaut battle is pretty middle of the road at 50.5. Texas is a 2.5-point favorite, though so it stands to reason that Georgia’s catchers will have some sort of factor, right?
Maybe, but Carson Beck has a few top options at his disposal before getting to Bell. Bell has not gone over 38.5 yards receiving in four weeks, and he has only four such games this season. Plus Bell only went for 12 yards on three catches against Texas back in October, a game in which Beck recorded only 175 yards on 41 attempts despite handing the Longhorns their only loss of the season.
The point is that Georgia’s path to victory is pretty independent of the ing game, and we’re riding lower than 38.5 yards for a 54% win rate.
