As we inch closer to whatever gift giving holiday you celebrate in the month of December, the NBA rewards us with a matinee before a six game slate. In our expert NBA player prop picks today, we’ll look past the Hornets and Cavs game and focus on our top plays in the evening.
Just two of the later games feature each team with at least ten wins; the rest are mismatches like Denver in Washington, Oklahoma City in New Orleans, and Detroit in Manhattan. I’ll continue to lean on Portfolio EV as these are my plays, the same I run with on my Road to 100 NBA units on X. Here are my top plays for Saturday, December 7th!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Saturday, Dec. 7
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
If you are following along it’s been a profitable week, month, and we are up over 50u on the year. The process may produce up and down nights, dealing with swings and variance, but we’ve been green when it matters. So much of understanding why Portfolio EV works is built off a long term approach. Lotto tickets are meant for one huge splash. As near impossible as the odds are each night, game, and betting market within – the chase is alive for most who simply want the big thrill. It’s a way of life; so is betting unders.
As you will see, the majority of our plays produce unders in the NBA, majority not all, as the market tends to shade a certain way. It’s not just a few people taking a Jayson Tatum over points prop, it’s them and the people betting the ALT play. Add all the parlay and lotto tickets, and all of a sudden we have value on the other side. It’s a two way market, at least it should be, where Tatum either hits 25 points or not. If the majority of people are betting one way, it stands to reason the books will more opportunity on the other side.
We do have a Tatum prop up, along with our top prop in Jaylen Brown. The latter sitting at +120 on DraftKings to stay under 3 made three pointers. Seems easy enough. But before you go through any reason or rationale on why it makes sense, look no further than the price.
Our tools pinpoint error, mistake, lag, or simply value in the market. The true odds for this play are +106 and after running through our complicated technology, is beaten by a price 14 cents better. That’s value – long-term value. It also beats every other book offering this ticket, at least where I can bet in PA. But that’s the beauty of it, pEV will find the best bet no matter what book or state.
I highlighted Jalen Brunson because it fully illustrates the simplicity of using the tool. True, it’s not as much of an edge as the Brown or Tatum props yield, but it’s still a fantastic play. Look at what we get on DK, a +105 return if he stays under 2.5 made threes. The true odds are -104 so we immediately get a break through +100 and nearly 10 cents.
Then look at every other book available – it’s not good. If you aren’t already limited on PointsBet, then there’s a lesser option but still not as good as DK. The rest of the crew is working off the true odds, ensuring a profit off that, not DK or PB.
Why pay a service charge to place a wager when another book is offering you a better payout?
If you are new to betting on sports but understand the basic principles of how a market works, this is the easiest and fastest way to build a bankroll. Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
