We enter the second night of the NBA Play-In schedule fresh off a 1-1 night. The attention now shifts to the Eastern Conference as Philadelphia hosts Miami, followed by the Hawks and Bulls squaring off in Chicago. The biggest piece in either of these games is healthy as last year’s MVP Joel Embiid looks solid in his short return. Jimmy Butler and the Heat look to knock down Philly’s playoff hopes, while Trae Young is back leading the Atlanta Hawks.
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Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
Ayo Dosunmu H/L Than 3.5 Rebounds
Right away the Bulls are dealing with a questionable Ayo Dosunmu ahead of tonight’s game against Atlanta. Dealing with a quad injury, Dosunmu is at least going to be limited as he’s charged with slowing down Trae Young. A clear edge on the defensive side when healthy, this is going to limit most of his individual numbers – including the 3.5 rebounds. He’s cleared this number in two of three games against the Hawks, but wasn’t immediately returning from a quad injury.
The Hawks aren’t going to stray away from asking Young to dominate the ball, regardless of Dosunmu’s health. Atlanta is in a solid spot to win this game, which would mostly come from Young outdueling his defensive counterpart. Grabbing 4 rebounds may seem easy, mainly with Dosunmu focusing on defense rather than dropping 20 points. Use caution here if you are racing to play the HIGHER side as injury will limit both minutes and performance.
Dosunmu averaged 3.1 rebounds in the last full month of the regular season. We don’t see him pushing this total despite having a little better individual success against the Hawks. OddsShopper’s pick’em tool identifies a 2.3% edge against the market by playing LOWER than 3.5 rebounds. The implied odds at Underdog sit at -122 per play and we beat the -128 true odds, meaning we found a small gap to attack.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Ayo Dosunmu LOWER Than 3.5 Rebounds
Clint Capela H/L Than 12.5 Rebounds
The Bulls are banged up but could see the return of Andre Drummond up front. That’s bad news for Clint Capela who has seen numbers dwindle against Drummond. Much like Dosunmu with Young, the battle of big men – when healthy – has seen the Bulls prevail. Of course, both Bulls players are questionable and might miss time – or simply be limited in action.
Capela is hovering at 10.5 rebounds per game this season and saw that number barely rise over the final stretch. This is a big ask to hit 13 boards, and is factoring in Drummond not seeing the floor. It’s difficult to think that Drummond playing still allows Capela to roam free and clean the glass.
The most important factor for Capela may not even be the matchup with Drummond, so much the overall matchup against the Bulls. Capela failed to hit 12 boards in both of the games against Chicago while seeing the floor for 26 and 27 minutes. There shouldn’t be a large increase in floor time which also hurts his chances of snatching 12 rebounds.
We know the implied odds at Underdog are -122 thanks to OddsShopper. Finding edge is easy with the pick’em tool, even if it’s a smaller one. When we find implied odds shorter than true market odds, we find +EV edges that profit over time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Clint Capela LOWER Than 12.5 Rebounds
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