Yesterday’s article scored a beautiful 2-0 sweep (3-0 if you tailed the ladder on NBA play-in tournament betting guide.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Coby White & More
Coby White Player Prop
The Chicago Bulls may have lost Zach LaVine earlier in the season, but the emergence of point guard Coby White has helped them make up the difference tremendously. White averaged a career-best 19.1 points per game this season on shooting splits of 45/38/84, marking career-highs in overall field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
White’s impact becomes clearer when filtering out games he played alongside LaVine. He averaged an impressive 20.6 points per game on splits of 45/37/85 without LaVine, managing to maintain his improved shooting splits despite his usage rate increasing by 2.5%. White now gets a matchup with the soft Atlanta Hawks defense.
The Hawks ended the regular season by struggling mightily against opposing point guards like White. They coughed up the second-most points per game to the position over the final 15 games (28.6). The two-man lineup combo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray recorded an abysmal 121.3 defensive rating.
White averaged 20.3 points per game versus the Hawks this season, all games he played without LaVine. I bought him to go over the 19.5, which he did in two of those contests. It also helps that the Hawks will be without two of their better defensive weapons, Saddiq Bey and Onyeka Okongwu. We’re getting the over 19.5 for only -113 at FanDuel, which is beating the -144 at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Coby White points live odds page!
Clint Capela Player Prop
We’ll stick with tonight’s late game for our other NBA player prop pick. We’re going with Clint Capela under 12.5 rebounds for -108 at SuperBook (or -110 at Hard Rock; if you don’t have either book, click here for the best price available). Capela draws a tough matchup against a slow-paced Chicago Bulls team that allowed the eighth-fewest rebounds per game to centers this season, and he could get run off the floor in tonight’s elimination game.
I also recommend getting action on this Capela player prop because we’re beating the market. The odds available at both SuperBook and Hard Rock are meaningfully off-market, especially with the under trading at -141 on Pinnacle. By using positive expected value (+EV) like this one:
We know we’re getting +EV on this bet because our model’s estimate of the wager’s true odds clocks in at -121. The model generates that number by indexing the odds across the betting landscape; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and producing that breakeven price.
When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, we know it’s +EV! Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
For more picks, sign up for guide to using +EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Clint Capela Under 12.5 Rebounds -108 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, see our Clint Capela rebounds live odds page!
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