Yesterday’s article cashed tickets for Bryce Harper to hit a home run and record over 1.5 total bases, lost a Carlos Rodon ticket and had Shea Langeliers tickets void, leading to a profitable day overall. Today, let’s get exposure to some MLB player prop bets, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model — which you can now get for 50% off, just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, April 17
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Christopher Morel
The Chicago Cubs will stay on the road for their series’ conclusion against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D’backs will trot out RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has been a pumpkin over the last two seasons. He has some strong peripheral stats, but the 5.72 ERA he recorded last year and the 6.48 ERA he owns this year just won’t cut it in the show.
Pfaadt’s 4.03 xERA suggests he has gotten somewhat unlucky, but his .262 xBA allowed this year and .253 xBA allowed last year both rank well below the MLB average. I see his start as a good opportunity to target Chicago’s bats.
Pfaadt, a righty, has allowed same-handed batters like Christopher Morel to slash .289/.326/.526, allowing an average of six total bases to them per start. Morel owns a career slash line of .246/.308/.470 versus RHP but is a cool .218/.259/.382 against them this year.
Morel should bounce back against a softer RHP, especially since he has previously succeeded against Pfaadt. In five at-bats against Pfaadt, Morel sports an impressive .400/.400/1.000 slash line. Those are probably unsustainable numbers due to the small sample size, but it’s an encouraging sign nonetheless.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Christopher Morel total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Luis Severino
The New York Mets will host the Pittsburgh Pirates today, and our MLB betting model recommends getting action on RHP Luis Severino under 5.5 total strikeouts. Severino sports a solid 25% strikeout rate (62nd percentile), which is way up from the 18.9% rate (19th percentile) he recorded last season, suggesting his uptick in performance may be unsustainable. Pittsburgh may rank third-worst in strikeouts taken per game (10.2), but we’re getting too good of a price to up:
As you can see, Severino will cost you -150 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts at FanDuel. Both of those lines are far off from the price at Pinnacle, a sharp book, which clocks in at 5.5 for -135.
Our model uses the odds from across the sports betting market to generate a breakeven price, called true odds. When the number available at a given book exceeds that number, we know the bet has positive expected value (+EV).
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as the results to prove it.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Luis Severino total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna
The Atlanta Braves will visit the Houston Astros this afternoon. The ‘Stros will start struggling RHP J.P. in this one, who sports both a 8.22 ERA and a 5.00 xERA, neither of which are encouraging. Opposing batters have a .289 xBA against him.
Meanwhile, Marcell Ozuna has been one of the hottest bats in baseball. He is slashing an absurd .364/.417/.727 this season to go with seven home runs.
Of those seven dingers, 6.8 are counted as expected home runs — 10 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of at least one ballpark.
Ozuna clocks in at odds of +300 to go yard at FanDuel, which may seem short, but he is trading for a much stingier +209 at Pinnacle.
Even if he doesn’t go yard today, getting this bet at this price should yield meaningful returns over the long term — it’s just a question of getting exposure to enough of these bets to insulate yourself from variance.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Marcell Ozuna home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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