If you’re a sports bettor, you want to make money. We all do. But some sportsbooks are better for that than others, and we have the data to back it up. Using bets tracked from sports betting promos as well!
Best Sportsbooks to Make a Profit: 3 Beatable Sites (>5% ROI!)
Best Sportsbooks to Make a Profit: 3 Beatable Sites (>5% ROI!)
This analysis was conducted using data collected from the start of the 2023-24 NBA season through the All-Star Break. “Total profit” calculations are performed based on each bet wagered to win $100.
Portfolio EV sports an impressive 8.6% ROI on odds trading 12 hours before tip-off and a similarly solid 5% on odds trading two hours before tip-off. You can find out more about the types of bets the market has been crushing here, but today, I want to talk about the sportsbooks where the model is turning the most profit.
Of course, if you have returns like ours on large enough bet sizes, you’ll likely start getting limited, so don’t assume these profits are necessarily scalable. Still, let’s identify three beatable sportsbooks with the softest odds.
Beatable Sportsbook #1: Caesars Sportsbook | Sites With the Softest Odds
Model’s ROI (12 HRS): 15.9%
Total Profit (12 HRS): $8,900
Model’s ROI (2 HRS): 4.8%
Total Profit (2 HRS): $6,400
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The oddsmakers are Caesars are usually pretty stingy, but when they miss, they can miss big. Portfolio EV recorded an absurd 15.9% ROI on NBA prop bets placed 12-plus hours before tip at their site over a 504-bet sample. Those high-value lines usually disappear well before tip-off, however, so don’t expect to be printing money over there if you’re getting action down late.
If you’re looking to add Caesars to your sports betting portfolio in hopes of exploiting the sportsbook’s sometimes soft odds, they offer our review of their site here! Getting early action down on NBA player props at Caesars Sportsbook is a great way to make a profit.
Beatable Sportsbook #2: bet365 | Sites With the Softest Odds
Model’s ROI (12 HRS): 11%
Total Profit (12 HRS): $14,250
Model’s ROI (2 HRS): 6.8%
Total Profit (2 HRS): $23,250
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No sportsbook has been more profitable for Portfolio EV customers close to tip than bet365. The returns have also been solid well in advance of tip — an 11% ROI is nothing to scoff at — but that’s lower than our ROI at Caesars, ESPNBet and Fanatics. But the model’s ability to generate a 6.8% ROI just two hours before tip at bet365 reveals just how beatable the book can be even for bettors who get action down late.
Our numbers suggest bet365 may have the softest odds of these three books, especially late in the day. As far as sportsbooks go, bet365 is a pretty good one to add to your list of s — and not just because our tools will help you make money there. I recommend checking out our review. New customers even get to pick between two different bonuses: $150 in bonus bets or a first-bet safety net worth up to $1,000!
Beatable Sportsbook #3: DraftKings | Sites With the Softest Odds
Model’s ROI (12 HRS): 9%
Total Profit (12 HRS): $20,750
Model’s ROI (2 HRS): 5.8%
Total Profit (2 HRS): $22,750
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As far as the sheer volume of profit goes, no book has been better for our subscribers than DraftKings. Our ROI there is narrowly ahead of our averages across all sites, but no book has generated more for our customers in of total profit. That’s largely due to DraftKings featuring more markets than some of its competitors. The 5,799 tracked bets there constitute 13.3% of all bets in the sample, but DraftKings is just one of 14 tracked books.
If you’re a recreational sports bettor, chances are you already have an at DraftKings. But on the off chance you don’t, I strongly recommend g up — they offer plenty of bonuses and books, and, for more information, I recommend reading our review. New customers can currently score a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000.
Using Portfolio EV to Beat the Books
The below content is adapted from our read the full story!
Portfolio EV is built on the assumption that some books are sharper than others. The odds at Pinnacle, a high-limit offshore book, are probably higher quality than the ones you’ll find on the sportsbooks listed above. Using the odds from those sharp books, Portfolio eV generates a breakeven price called “true odds” to identify whether another book’s price offers enough positive expected value (+EV) to warrant exploiting. Let’s take a quick look at an example wager and how our product team describes each key term featured within it.
EV: An abbreviation for “expected value,” this metric estimates the long-term profitability of a wager by taking into the probabilities/payouts associated with each potential outcome.
xWin: The probability of winning the bet implied by the Sharp Sportsbook Algorithm true odds.
OS Rating: The OS rating provides a rating for each +EV bet. An OS rating above 20 signifies an exceptional bet. Ratings between 10 and 20 are highly favorable bets. Finally, a rating between 0 and 10 indicates a solid bet. We factor in the EV, expected win, bet size, and negative geometric drag to calculate this rating.
EV Age: How long the relevant wager has been available on the market.
True Odds: Odds that represent the real statistical probability of any outcome in a particular sporting event.
Bet Size: The recommended bet size as a percentage of your bankroll. This metric is based on a fractional Kelly Criterion approach that leads to a reasonable balance of minimizing risk of ruin while maximizing potential reward.
Portfolio EV Tools & Tips
New to sports betting? positive expected value (+EV), and you can unlock more +EV plays by g up for Portfolio EV!
