The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the unenviable position of playing the Dallas Mavericks on the road while in a 2-1 hole. They can even the series with a win tonight, but a loss means they’ll have to win three-straight games or be eliminated. The Dallas Mavericks are under a lot of pressure to win tonight, so let’s dive into my top Luka Doncic player prop pick for Thunder-Mavericks Game 4. Check out our full NBA player props article for more picks!
Luka Doncic Player Prop for Thunder-Mavericks Game 4
Luka Doncic Player Prop for Thunder-Mavericks Game 2: O/U 8.5 Assists
This wasn’t how the playoffs were supposed to go for the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder. They currently trail the No. 5 Dallas Mavericks and have another road game on tap tonight. Both losses were in the single digits, but you need to win close games in the playoffs. I’m optimistic that the Thunder can get back to the brand of basketball that led them to rank fourth in defensive efficiency (111) in the regular season.
It’ll be crucial for the Thunder to keep slowing down superstar Luka Doncic, who is averaging 23.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and seven assists per game this series. Those are well below his regular season averages of 33.9, 9.2 and 9.8, but OKC’s defense, combined with Doncic’s knee sprain and ankle soreness, have been a limitation. Fortunately for us, our positive expected value (+EV):
Those who tailed this morning’s NBA player props column got Doncic to stay under 8.5 assists for -115. However, the best deal on the market now is the under 8.5 for +124 at DraftKings, which is beating most public books. Especially important is the fact it’s beating Pinnacle, a sharp book, and the true odds of +118.
The model works by calculating the true odds (a breakeven price) of a wager, which, in today’s example, clock in at +118. It reaches that estimate by indexing the odds across the sports betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; then generating the true odds with that data.
Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
Thunder-Mavericks Game 4 Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic assists live odds page!
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