We split yesterday’s NBA player props, cashing an under for Chet Holmgren but losing an over for Josh Giddey as the Oklahoma City Thunder got creative with their rotations. This evening, we’re down to one NBA playoff contest: Game 2 between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. I’ve found two NBA player props with the assistance of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Pascal Siakam & More
Pascal Siakam Player Prop
Head coach Tom Thibodeau must have been very unhappy with how his team defended the Indiana Pacers in Game 1. The Knicks gave up an early lead and had to rally from behind, allowing the Pacers to rack up 117 total points. Myles Turner (23) and T.J. McConnell (18) were two of the main culprits, but Pascal Siakam (19) did plenty of damage as well.
Siakam shot 8-for-16 from the field, 1-for-3 from beyond the arc and 2-for-4 from the charity stripe. While those are sustainable shooting numbers, they’re also not very good by his standards. Siakam is coming off a series in which he averaged 22.3 points per game on splits of 55/27/46. Those scoring numbers are skewed by his first two games of the series, after which he averaged 15.3 points on splits of 47/14/39.
So, is a Siakam bounce-back coming, or should we expect him to keep struggling? If Game 1 was any indication, it’s the latter. The veteran forward just hasn’t been efficient, and now he’ll have to deal with strong, more flexible defenders in Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa with Mitchell Robinson shelved.
We’re fading Siakam in more than just the points column, where his prop total is trading at a fair 19.5 or 20.5. We’re adding on rebounds to get the total to 27.5. He tallied 25 total points and rebounds in Game 1 and also racked up exactly 25 in two regular-season meetings with the Knicks.
With his six rebounds in Game 1 coming on only nine rebound chances — and our NBA betting model showing his rebound under trading with positive expected value (+EV) — I love this under for Siakam tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Pascal Siakam points and rebounds live odds page!
Donte DiVincenzo Player Prop
On the other side of things, the New York Knicks beat the Pacers in Game 1 thanks largely to Jalen Brunson, but Donte DiVincenzo was a key contributor as well. He scored 25 points and shot 5-of-9 from beyond the arc across 44 minutes of action.
But just because DiVincenzo smashed in Game 1 doesn’t mean he’ll smash in Game 2. The journeyman wing is averaging only 2.7 3-pointers per game in the postseason and has gone over his prop total (3.5) in three of seven games. Now, our positive expected value (+EV):
DiVincenzo is trading at odds of FanDuel is the next-most generous at -138 and Hard Rock wraps up the group at -150. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this wager for odds of -148, and our model believes the true odds to be -129.
How does the model reach that conclusion? Our tools work by indexing the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusting them for hold, book sharpness and more; then projecting those true odds (also known as a breakeven price) with that data. If a bet is available for odds longer than its true odds, you’ve found a +EV spot!
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Donte DiVincenzo 3-pointers live odds page!
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