The Boston Celtics can seal the deal against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, and with Donovan Mitchell likely out, they’re now a 15.5-point favorite. Jayson Tatum could do the job himself, but after back-to-back smash games, I’m selling high on the superstar. Let’s dive into my top Jayson Tatum player prop pick for Cavs-Celtics Game 5. Check out our full NBA player props article for more picks!
Jayson Tatum Player Prop for Cavs-Celtics Game 5
Jayson Tatum Player Prop for Cavs-Celtics Game 5: O/U 30.5 Points
The Boston Celtics have a chance to put away the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. With Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Donovan Mitchell all questionable for tonight’s elimination game, a blowout Celtics home win is very much in the cards — they’re trading as 15.5-point home favorites. While Jayson Tatum could score a ton early, I’m fading him on the points market due to a possible downtick in playing time.
Tatum is coming off back-to-back 33-point games, but those are the high-water mark for his postseason production. He is averaging just 24.2 points per game in the postseason. With his points total trading at 29.5 on most books (and 30.5 for -125 on DraftKings), we can afford an above-average night from him. Our positive expected value (+EV), too:
We can buy Tatum to stay under 30.5 points for -125 at DraftKings alone. Only one other public book, ESPNBET, has a comparable price for the 30.5; everywhere else lists it for -155 or so. The under 29.5 is trading between -110 and -122 on public books but is -136 at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Our NBA +EV betting tools estimate a fair market price (or “true odds”) for this bet to be -134. That means we’re getting enough value for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to justify wagering $18 on this one. The tools work by indexing the odds across the market and factoring in book sharpness, and I trust them on this Tatum prop tonight.
Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
