We went 9-3 last week and are a tepid 2-2 to start this one. That’s not bad, but it could be better, and we’re rapidly running out of time to make money on the NBA. Let’s sweep the board tonight — I’ve found a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More
Luguentz Dort Player Prop
We cashed a +165 Luguentz Dort ticket for Game 3, as the perimeter defender racked up three steals and blocks. Those odds were terrible — although Dort hadn’t yet blocked a shot in the postseason, he averaged 0.6 blocks per game in the regular season to go with 0.9 steals. The same bet is trading for -105 for Game 5, and despite the more efficient price, I’m pouncing.
Dort averaged 1.5 steals and blocks in the regular season. He is averaging 1.8 this series and 1.3 in the postseason. Importantly, he is also averaging 4.1 personal fouls per game, which tells us the hustle has been there the whole time. While foul trouble can be an issue, he has fouled out just once and is seeing extra minutes with Josh Giddey performing at a basically unplayable level.
Dort also spends most of his time covering Luka Doncic, which means he is on the ball for most of his defensive minutes. That gives him plenty of chances to swipe or swat the ball. Dort is averaging 2.5 recovered loose balls per game this series to go with five contested field goals. The hustle is there and the ball will be in Luka’s hands — I’d make this line -120 or so, which means the -105 is on the card.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luguentz Dort steals and blocks live odds page!
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
The Boston Celtics have a chance to put away the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. With Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Donovan Mitchell all questionable for tonight’s elimination game, a blowout Celtics home win is very much in the cards — they’re trading as 14.5-point home favorites. While Jayson Tatum could score a ton early, I’m fading him on the points market due to a possible downtick in playing time.
Tatum is coming off back-to-back 33-point games, but those are the high-water mark for his postseason production. He is averaging just 24.2 points per game in the postseason. With his points total trading at 29.5 on most books (and 30.5 for -125 on DraftKings), we can afford an above-average night from him. Our positive expected value (+EV), too:
We can buy Tatum to stay under 30.5 points for -125 at DraftKings alone. Only one other public book, ESPNBET, has a comparable price for the 30.5; everywhere else lists it for -155 or so. The under 29.5 is trading between -110 and -122 on public books but is -136 at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Our NBA +EV betting tools estimate a fair market price (or “true odds”) for this bet to be -134. That means we’re getting enough value for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to justify wagering $18 on this one. The tools work by indexing the odds across the market and factoring in book sharpness, and I trust them on this Tatum prop tonight.
Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum points live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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