It’s time to release our UFC 291 predictions. Using industry-leading tools and data, let’s get on with it by providing our C.J. Vergara-Vinicius Salvador pick using the latest odds.
In the men’s flyweight division, C.J. Vergara takes on Vinicius Salvador as a -175 favorite. Vergara most recently defeated Daniel Lacerda via knockout back in March. Salvador is a Dana White Contender Series alum who lost his UFC debut to Victor Altamirano back in March, setting him up as the underdog.
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UFC 291 Prediction: C.J. Vergara-Vinicius Salvador Pick
C.J. Vergara-Vinicius Salvador Odds
C.J. Vergara: -175 | Vinicius Salvador: +145
Vergara comes from a Muay Thai striking background and lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute. He only absorbs 4.75 behind his 53% striking defense. Vergara has never landed a takedown in his career, but he defends them at 72%.
The only fighter to control him on the mat to this point has been Tatsuro Taira, but Vergara has pretty solid defense if a fight hits the mat. At 11-4 in his career, Vergara has seven knockouts and four decisions. He has been submitted twice in his career, but that does not look like much of a threat against Salvador.
Salvador also comes from a striking background, with 13 of his 14 professional wins coming via knockout. Salvador has been knocked out twice and does have some durability concerns. he lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.29. Salvador theoretically has an advantage on the ground, but he only lands 0.62 takedowns per bout. Vergara is not much of a threat on the mat, but Salvador does defend takedowns at 86%.
Our final C.J. Vergara-Vinicius Salvador pick: This should be a striking affair, with Vergara having the edge on the feet. He also has a much better strength of schedule, which should be enough for him to edge out Salvador. At just -175, he is worth a play.
