UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura provides a solid main card of action. The first fight of the main event, a middleweight bout between Gerald Meerschaert and Bryan Barbarena, promises some solid action worth betting on. Let’s get into our Gerald Meerschaert-Bryan Barbarena pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Gerald Meerschaert-Bryan Barbarena Pick, Odds and Preview
Meerschaert–Barbarena Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Meerschaert: -260 | Barbarena: +185
Meerschaert -3.5: -165 | Barbarena +3.5: +120
Over 2.5: +120 | Under 2.5: -150
Meerschaert–Barbarena Pick & Preview
In the first fight on the main card, Gerald Meerschaert (35-17) faces Bryan Barberena (18-11) in a fight that feels like it could only end one of two ways. With Barberena’s poor takedown defense, he will likely be put in a lot of dangerous positions against Meerschaert. Given this, I like Meerschaert to win by submission.
Meerschaert essentially only wins by one method: submission. In 35 wins, he secured a submission 27 times (77%). His submission rate only went up since entering the UFC, securing a tap in nine of his 10 victories. Without a more well-rounded game, Meerschaert has a defined ceiling, as he’s nearly level in wins and losses in his UFC career, sitting at 10-9.
Despite his ceiling, Meerschaert is perfectly tailored to win against fighters with little-to-no grappling ability. Barberena almost perfectly meets this definition. Barberena is certainly dangerous on the feet, as evidenced by his 11 knockouts, but he too has a clear ceiling, as his grappling leaves much to be desired.
In two of his last three fights, he was forced to tap, once by armbar and once by rear naked choke. In his lengthy UFC career, his takedown defense rate has been putrid. He only successfully defends the takedown 49% of the time. Against a fighter like Meerschaert, who lands 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, Barberena will have a lot of trouble if he can’t fix this hole in his game.
Though Meerschaert doesn’t have the stand-up to win against upper-level fighters if he can’t get the fight to the ground, he isn’t just a sitting duck on the feet. He lands about the same amount of significant strikes per minute as he absorbs (3.30 to 3.50), with a solid strike defense rate of 53%. If he can avoid getting blasted by a knockout shot, he should have plenty of chances to win by sub.
The +110 odds may feel short for a fighter to win by a specific method, but given that Meerschaert doesn’t win by any other method in any predictable manner, it gives bettors a nice edge. Considering the implied probability for Meerschaert to win sits at 72.6%, multiplying this by his UFC submission-victory rate (90%) or his career submission-victory rate (77%) yields a number between 65% on the high end and 55% on the low end. Each of these results has a comfortable edge over the implied probability of submission victory, which comes to 47%.
Best UFC Meerschaert–Barbarena Bet & Pick: Meerschaert to Win by Submission +110 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Articles
-
Alex Perez-Tatsuro Taira Pick, Odds and Preview
-
Sean Strickland-Paulo Costa Pick, Odds and Preview
-
Kevin Holland-Michal Oleksiejczuk Pick, Odds and Preview
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more UFC predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
