The UFC rolls on with yet another Fight Night card from the APEX in Las Vegas. With a busy card in store, let’s get into our Alatengheili-Kleydson Rodrigues pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Alatengheili-Kleydson Rodrigues Pick, Odds and Preview
Alatengheili–Rodrigues Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Alatengheili: +124 | Rodrigues: -148
Alatengheili +3.5: -185 | Rodrigues -3.5: +140
Over 2.5: -220 | Under 1.5: +170
Alatengheili–Rodrigues Pick & Preview
In what is anticipated to be the closest fight of the prelims, Alatengheili (16-9-2) looks to bounce back from a loss as he takes on Kleydson Rodrigues (8-3). Given Alatengheili’s woes on the feet, the gameplan for Rodrigues is clearcut – stuff the takedowns and ride your way to victory.
Though Rodrigues has somewhat shaky takedown defense, I anticipate he does enough to stay on the feet and win either by a comfortable decision or by a knockout.
Alatengheili has made something of a habit drawing his fights to a decision. In his seven UFC fights, six went to decision, with the only other being a knockout victory. Nonetheless, they haven’t been easy victories. In all but one of the decisions, Alatengheili was outstruck by his opponents, many of which were quite substantial.
For this reason, Alatengheili’s striking numbers aren’t pretty. He lands just 2.88 significant strikes per minute, which is quite low for a Bantamweight. If he was a defensive counterstriker or a jiu jitsu specialist, these numbers could be forgiven, but he only averages 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time with no submission attempts.
Worse yet, he absorbs a staggering 5.03 significant strikes per minute, meaning he eats two shots for every one he lands. Alatengheili’s inefficiency on the feet is a big reason for his striking woes. He only lands 33% of his significant strikes, which puts him in his opponent’s line of fire without landing much offense.
Somehow, he found a way to squeak out decision victories against Ryan Benoit and Batgerel Danaa despite being outstruck 47-68 and 38-85, respectively. He didn’t find the same result when Chris Gutierrez landed 110 significant strikes to his measly 38, and if this pattern continues, he will certainly find it difficult to continue winning decisions.
Rodrigues, on the other hand, is a dynamic striker that will most likely be able to capitalize on Alatengheili’s poor stand-up. In his four UFC fights, counting his appearance on the Contender Series, Rodrigues lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute at a whopping 62%. Despite his aggression, Rodrigues does a good job of keeping himself protected, only absorbing 2.75 significant strikes per minute.
His biggest question mark is his takedown defense, as he was taken to the ground in his last fight against Farid Basharat twice and finished with a submission in the first round. However, Alatengheili is nowhere near the grappler Basharat is, as Basharat lands a staggering 3.96 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. It is certainly forgivable to fall victim to Basharat’s grappling as all of his previous opponents had.
This fight will not be particularly close. Coming off the Basharat loss in September, Rodrigues will likely focus a lot of his energy on improving his takedown defense, which will allow him to piece up Alatengheili on the feet. Take Rodrigues’ moneyline while laddering it with either the spread or with Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
Best UFC Alatengheili–Rodrigues Bet & Pick: Rodrigues Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)
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