Tonight’s UFC card brings us some exciting action in the APEX facility in Vegas. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Adrian Yanez-Vinicius Salvador pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Adrian Yanez-Vinicius Salvador Pick, Odds and Preview
Yanez–Salvador Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Yanez: -425 | Salvador: +330
Yanez -3.5: -250 | Salvador +3.5: +180
Over 1.5: -160 | Under 1.5: +124
Yanez–Salvador Pick & Preview
The next fight between Adrian Yanez (16-5) and Vinicius Salvador (14-6) will likely look more like a game of Rock’ Em Sock’ Em Robots than a UFC fight. With such a high striking output and little chance the fight finds its way to the ground, this fight will end quicker than the books, which have set the line for the under in the plus-money.
Yanez comes into this fight seemingly allergic to the Octagon canvas. In his eight UFC appearances, including his bout on the Contender Series, Yanez has never attempted a takedown. Even more remarkably, his opponents have failed to take him down, meaning that at no point in his eight fights has Yanez ever touched the ground. That streak is unlikely to change, as Salvador hardly attempts takedowns, landing only 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
What each fighter lacks in grappling output, they more than make up for in striking. Yanez lands 6.15 significant strikes per minute while Salvador lands 5.44.
Their striking output is highlighted even more by the fact that neither is particularly efficient, with Yanez landing 39% of the time and Salvador landing 41%.
Given their high output and lack of efficiency, it’s no surprise that they absorb quite a bit of damage. Yanez absorbs 5.73 significant strikes per minute, despite his solid 57% defense rate. Salvador absorbs more than he lands at 6.05 significant strikes per minute on 49% efficiency.
The lack of grappling with such high striking output is tailormade for an early finish. This tracks with Yanez’s fight time, as he averages only six minutes and 17 seconds of fight time in his eight bouts.
With such little time spent in the Octagon, it’s no surprise that six of his eight fights have gone under a round and a half.
Though none of Salvador’s fights went under, he takes too much damage for that record to be sustainable. Coming in as a +305 underdog, this fight is ripe for the first early stoppage in his UFC career. Even without any contribution from Salvador, six of their combined 11 fights went under 1.5 rounds (55%). This gives a nice edge on the implied probability of the line, which sits around 45%.
Best UFC Yanez–Salvador Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
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