We should do Sunday content more often! We cashed the 3x winner for yesterday’s MLB slate, and we look to do it all over again. Monday presents a shorter slate of action, but it’s certainly not lacking any value. We will again lean on the OddsShopper MLB pick’em tool to win our Underdog entry. There are seven games, but one starts midday on the East Coast, even earlier across the country, so let’s just focus on the later action. Here are our top MLB Underdog pick’em predictions.
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Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Andrew Abbott H/L Than 6.0 Strikeouts
Neither the Reds nor Rockies are particularly interesting enough to carry this game alone, outside of the rare Elly De La Cruz watch, but both will benefit from the ballpark. Much like if this game were played in Colorado, the atmosphere and altitude carry the baseball to enormous lengths, Great American Ballpark offers its own set of benefits. The dimensions alone aid any batter at the expense of most pitching arms, Andrew Abbott being no exception.
The Rockies have a handful of guys who will offer up the strikeout, but it’s not as bad as their overall record may indicate. They have a few guys who can hit for power, and even those not tearing the cover off like Elias Diaz and Charlie Blackmon aren’t striking out. On the other side, we see a player in Abbott limiting the hard-hit off the barrel but not at the expense of striking out more batters. With just an 18.5% strikeout rate, it’s not an easy path to seven strikeouts against most teams while playing in Cincinnati.
While he’s hovered around the above total, Abbott has cleared six strikeouts just three times across 17 starts. He’s getting the public benefit of the doubt because of the Rockies, rather than the hard fade because of the ballpark.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Andrew Abbott Lower than 6.0 Strikeouts
Steven Kwan H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
The Guardians could easily be in trouble tonight with young Gavin Williams on the mound in Detroit. He’s going to need as much help around him, behind him and at the plate. We just aren’t counting on Steven Kwan to provide much, if any, — primarily with at-bats.
Kwan will square off against Keider Montero, making his fourth start of the year for Detroit. Montero settled down in his last outing after being shelled for the first two. Small sample size, but the 22% strikeout rate is more than serviceable against Cleveland, at least far better than what Williams provided in his lone start.
Kwan is no easy target, as he’s hit safely in five straight games while boasting one of the best xBAs on the team. He makes great but not for much power. We can see a 1-for-4 night with a single and a walk to round out the night. We don’t expect Kwan to strike out — not with that 9% strikeout rate — but it’s the first time seeing this pitcher.
There is a small but +EV edge to the market by staying lower than 1.5 total bases. The -122 implied odds are simply better than the -126 true odds, giving us a 1.5% edge against the market.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Steven Kwan Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
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