After a busy weekend, the MLB’s final Monday before the All-Star Break presents an underwhelming card. That said, there are a handful of betting spots to exploit, and my full card is always available both on expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Monday, July 8, and for more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, July 8
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Josh Naylor
The Cleveland Guardians will visit the Detroit Tigers tonight on FS1, and it’s rookie Keider Montero on the bump for the Motor City Kitties. Through his first 15 IP, Montero has coughed up 1.8 xHR/9, including four batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Comerica Park. Montero, a RHP, has been better against LHBs than RHBs in the majors, but in the minors, he allowed LHBs to slash .312/.411/.544 with five home runs.
Josh Naylor, a LHB, is in an excellent spot to pop against Montero tonight. He is slashing .251/.331/.512 against opposite-handed pitchers with 16 home runs this season. He trails teammate Jose Ramirez in both actual home runs (23 to 21) and expected home runs (22.7 to 19.7), but as overall batters, Naylor has a leg up.
Naylor sports a .276 xBA (81st percentile) and a .505 xSLG (91st), edging out Ramirez’s .250 (46th) and .446 (69th) by substantial margins. He also leads Ramirez in barrel rate at 11.4% (79th), hard-hit rate at 45.7% (77th) and bat speed at 72.7 mph (67th). All these factors suggest that Naylor should have better odds to record multiple bases than Ramirez, but he doesn’t.
The market is still a bit less efficient on Naylor’s props than it should be, which is why we’re betting on him to record multiple bases (+560 at FanDuel). Sure, Comerica Park isn’t good for left-handed power, but we can turn a profit with just a pair of base hits with smart bet sizing.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Josh Naylor home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yilber Diaz
The Atlanta Braves are on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. The Snakes will turn to rookie RHP Yilber Diaz in this spot. Diaz owns a steady 3.27 ERA at AAA this season, where he is also averaging 11.5 K/9. Diaz posted an impressive 12.8 K/9 at AA before getting promoted halfway through the season.
Books always struggle to set prop lines for players’ major league debuts, and that’s what we’re seeing with Diaz’s prop line today, which is the main source of our edge. Most books have the total set to 4.5 with the under priced somewhere between +115 and +102. However, you’ll find the under 5.5 trading for positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, Diaz’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -167, a price we can only beat at FanDuel. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 740 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 4 or higher with at least two hours before game start. Of those bets, 371 won, yielding a 14% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Yilber Diaz total strikeouts live odds page!
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