The last time we all got together to count home runs on a Tuesday night, it turned out rather well. Sure, we didn’t hit our home run play, but because of the massive amount of jacks throughout the league, we still turned a profit! HomerFest is back and so are we with the top 3 promos, boosts and overall plays from DraftKings. We will certainly start with our favorite long ball but will also expand into other arenas like a possible Caitlin Clark sighting. Here’s our top 3 DraftKings bets today, including a HomerFest play!
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Top 3 DraftKings Bets Today: HomerFest & Other Best Bets
Trea Turner O/U 0.5 Home Runs
We simply aren’t going to get the +EV odds desired to take full advantage of this promo. Unlike DraftKings’ promo is not capped with winnings either, so there’s some strategy in knowing we are getting a haul back either way. There’s no boost here; it’s just knowing we have a full slate of action across the sport and the largest sample size for home runs available. We can look at OddsShopper to see which plays are +EV, then find one at DraftKings that is closest to market value.
Trea Turner fits that bill as best as we can for tonight’s promo. Looking around baseball, Graham Ashcraft might singlehandedly repay our bet surrendering homers to the Yankees, among some other unfavorable matchups for pitchers. Turner comes in on DraftKings at +310 — ittedly below the true price, but we factor in the promo for balance. Turner was derailed earlier in the year with an injury but is now one of the team’s most reliable with both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber sidelined. Turner has some decent to good power metrics but is making exceptional .
He’s only faced Hayden Wesneski for two at-bats and struck out once. More important for Turner is his .284 xBA, which makes him incredibly difficult to pitch to and won’t be much different tonight in Chicago. The price dipped for two main reasons: The promo and the lack of power hitters around Turner. He still is going to see some solid pitches throughout the night, and the Phillies bats are far from dead.
Best DraftKings HomerFest Bet Today: Trea Turner Over 0.5 Home Runs +310 (0.5 Units)
No Sweat WNBA Bet — Angel Reese or Caitlin Clark?
Fortunately for us — SEO and all — OddsShopper found a +EV play for our WNBA No Sweat Bet, and yes, it has to do with one of the two current young stars of the league. I’d probably still lead in with Clark, but now we don’t need to dance around the obvious; we know why you’re here. Sorry, Clark fans, you’ll have to sit this one out, as we are rocking with the other young phenom in Angel Reese. The play is under 14.5 points for Reese as her Chicago Sky travel to Atlanta to face the Dream.
This is the only recognized +EV play between the two and is narrowly beating the true price on the market. We get this at -120 on DraftKings, edging out the -121 true odds. It also beats every other book on the market — BetMGM at -135. We maintain that this is the best way to utilize any solo boost or no sweat token, as identifying even the smallest market edges can lead to profit. It’s working for me.
Best DraftKings Bet Today: Angel Reese Under 14.5 RBIs (-120, 1 Unit)
DrawBreaker — Copa America
Most American soccer fans may have checked out following last night’s disappointing exit from the tournament. Yet the beat goes on as we get another day to work some DrawBreaker magic. For those new to this promo, we get our entire stake back if the match ends in a draw (90 minutes). We’ve had strong success in the OddsShopper Discord by identifying live dogs who can at least push the game into extra time, if not win outright.
Tonight’s play finds us in Santa Clara as Brazil and Colombia fight for Group D ownership. There’s plenty at stake here for both squads, as a win tonight by Brazil would jump them ahead of Colombia. The latter won the previous matchup in 2023, despite playing to a tie earlier. Colombia is riding a 25-game non-losing streak, with 20 wins and 5 draws across that span. While Brazil is still without Neymar, they’ve managed to bounce back from a tough start to the Cup.
This game has an excellent chance of playing to a draw. The Brazil team would welcome the chance to bounce over Colombia to win the group, but this isn’t an elimination stage either. This is a tough matchup since the Brazil team needs to continue to be creative in creating scoring chances without it best on the pitch. I’ll gladly jump at Colombia +330 knowing the draw is in full play as a push. me!
Best DraftKings Bet Today: DrawBreaker — Colombia +330 (3-Way, 0.5 Units)
