Monday featured only three MLB games, but we’re back to a full slate of action tonight. I’m in love with this card and will have picks up and down the board here and on FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB player prop betting!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, July 2
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Yelich
I’m not reinventing the wheel here. We’re backing a very talented batter in a very friendly ballpark for home runs. Coors Field’s high elevation makes it a great spot for dingers — and a great spot for Dinger Tuesday. The Rockies and Brewers may have gotten all the scoring done with in yesterday’s game, but with LHP Dallas Keuchel and RHP Ryan Feltner on the bump, I doubt that’s the case.
We’re targeting Christian Yelich here despite his underwhelming power this season largely due to the price and environment. That said, Yelich remains an exceptional batter. His .292 xBA (93rd percentile) is elite, and his .444 xSLG (68th) is still very good. Yelich may have only 6.2 xHR to his name this season, but he just went yard on Sunday, and Coors Field is more forgiving than most parks.
Likewise, RHP Ryan Feltner is more forgiving than most pitchers. He is coughing up 1.4 xHR/9 this season and would be giving up 1.5 HR/9 if he played every game in Coors Field. Feltner is also allowing lefty batters like Yelich to slash .311/.357/.533 with 23 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Against RHPs, Yelich is slashing .327/.404/.500 with 14 extra-base hits and five home runs.
I bought Yelich for multiple bases (+420 at FanDuel). Although his lack of home run production to this point is a concern, I feel comfortable about wagering 1.5 units on his total bases market and 0.5 units on him to go yard.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Yelich home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Zack Littell
The Kansas City Royals will host the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, and it’s RHP Zack Littell’s turn to take the bump for the Rays. Littell has been shaky this year with a 4.14 xERA (39th percentile) and .266 xBA (20th). The 4.3% walk rate (94th percentile) is elite, but the 22% strikeout rate (49th) isn’t in the same stratosphere.
Littell has the tough task of striking out a Royals team that ranks third in strikeouts taken per game (7) and leads the MLB in strikeouts taken per game at home (6.1). They also have the fourth-best strikeout rate versus RHPs (19.5%). This matchup is a brutal one for anyone.
Littell’s strikeout prop is set to 3.5. You’ll find it trading for odds of between -115 and -145 across the market, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -131. We’re getting just enough value on the positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, the tools estimate Littell’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are -117, edging the -115 by a slim margin. That may not sound like a lot of edge, but it’s meaningful.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 14,103 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of at least 0 at least two hours before game start. A tidy 7,596 of them won, which has yielded a solid 5.9% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Zack Littell total strikeouts live odds page!
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