Well, friends, it’s finally happened. We’ve hit our first mini rough patch of the season. We’re still 14-11 overall on the season, so we’ve got a winning record, but I am not happy with my performance on these NRFI bets in this recent stretch. Most of the Ls we’ve taken have come via the YRFI and not the no run first inning bet, so we might need to check the dials here a little bit.
That said, this will be my last no run first inning picks article for the rest of the week — your boy will be hitting the beaches in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. However, I’ll still be checking in with our OddsShopper Discord from time to time while I’m down there, dropping some no run first inning bets here and there.
So, if you want to still snag a few of my NRFI bets and MLB picks throughout the week, check out the OddsShopper Discord and get all of our expert picks and access to betting tools.
And if you use promo code NATHAN, you get 20% off your first week or month! So, come hang out and sweat some bets with a gang of like 1,200!
We’ve got a fresh MLB slate, and I’ve got two NRFI bets today for Monday, April 8. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Alright, let’s kick off these no run first inning bets today by looking at some teams that I’d like to refer to as the Scooby-Doo teams. Their records look really good right now, but when we finally get our hands on them to take their masks off them, we’re going to say, “Don’t you recognize them? It’s actually just the same old Tigers and Pirates.”
So, today we’re getting Mitch Keller on the mound for the Pirates, who can be a bit scary from time to time, but there isn’t a ton to be scared of in the Tigers lineup.
While Keller hasn’t been getting a ton of strikeouts, the magic elixir could come in the form of the Tigers lineup. There’s more than enough swing and miss in the top four of the lineup with Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows, Riley Greene and Andy Ibanez.
All of those four besides Ibanez have career strikeout rates of 25% or more; but Ibanez has struck out six times already in 15 at-bats this season.
The Tigers record might look good, but they’ve still only scored 29 runs. And they’ve played the White Sox, Mets and A’s. So, not great competition. For all the warts Keller may or may not have, he’s an actual big league pitcher, so I think he can get us three outs in the top of the first here.
And for the bottom half of the first inning, we’re going to be looking at Reese Olson to close out the NRFI bet for us today. Seems risky, to bet on Reese Olson, yes, but with the way this Pirates team is swinging and missing, I’m definitely going to take my chances. Especially with the +100 odds we got.
The Pirates have struck out 104 times already this season — the second-most in baseball. The two fellas who lead the team in strikeouts? They just happen to hit first and second in the order: Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds.
Having these lefties with that type of swing-and-miss potential is a huge tick in Olson’s favor, because he doesn’t strike out a TON of left-handed batters — just a 2.08 K/BB against LHB. So, getting those guys to swing through his four-seamer/slider combo will be big to keep our NRFI bet intact here.
The run total of 8.5 isn’t my favorite, but I think most of the damage probably comes in the second time through the order, for these guys, and once the bullpens are introduced into the game.
So, we’re going to ride with the no run first inning bet here, and love the value.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Tigers-Pirates NRFI +100 ESPN Bet
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I’ve been preaching it a handful of times already this season, and just a moment ago in the Tigers-Pirates NRFI bet we just went over. Value. It’s mostly all about value with these NRFI picks because of how fickle they can be.
And this is exactly why finding value is … well … so valuable. Because sportsbooks HATE it. Check this out.
I was doing some research for today’s slate of games last night and saw this Mariners-Blue Jays NRFI bet sitting at +100 odds on BetRivers with a pair of pitchers I thought had no business giving +100 odds for the NRFI.
So, of course I had to hammer that line six ways to Sunday.
And what happens when you can prove time and time again that you’re finding value on lines that the books provide?
They tell you that you’re no longer allowed to bet more than $1.09 at their sportsbook going forward.
I spoiled the pick here, but we’ve got Jose Berrios and Luis Castillo facing off here in Toronto. A pair of bona fide aces that can go out and shut down offenses for an entire game.
This projected total is 8 runs today, and is dropping to 7.5 at some books already with both of these offenses struggling to score runs — Blue Jays averaging 3.6, Mariners 3.1 per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line closed at 7.5 at most books by first pitch.
Seattle is striking out A TON, and Berrios has been just about a strikeout-per-inning guy his entire career. Castillo has been just as dominant, just a tick under 10 Ks per nine innings.
You have to trust the aces of these staffs against two struggling offenses that can provide the swings and misses you need to cash a no run first inning bet with ease here.
So, with all that said, I hope you guys are starting to understand why it’s so imperative to start checking around for the best odds on these bets. And why the OddsShopper tools that find the best odds for you across the books will really help you in the long run.
Take this NRFI bet all day.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mariners-Blue Jays NRFI +100 BetRivers
