The NHL has a small two-game slate on tap tonight as the world turns its attention to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament finale. Still, we have a few spots to exploit on the hockey betting markets. Let’s dive into my recommended NHL player prop picks and anytime goalscorer picks for today’s action, including a pick directly from our how to bet on NHL player props.
NHL Player Prop & Anytime Goalscorer Bets Today: Monday, April 8
NHL Player Prop Bet Today: Evgeni Malkin
With only two games to choose from, you’ll be hard-pressed to find many NHL player props with positive expected value (+EV), but this pick for Evgeni Malkin stands out for projections-based and market-based reasons. Malkin is averaging exactly 1.5 total shots on goal per game since the start of March, but he stayed under that number in eight of his 20 games, good for a 40% win rate.
Malkin and the Pittsburgh Penguins have a road matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs on tap this evening, which bodes poorly for Malkin’s production. When playing on the road, Malkin averages 0.6 fewer shots on goal per game than when playing at home.
Malkin still averages 2.1 shots on goal per road game, but the downtick in volume outside of Pittsburgh is significant due to his shrinking role — after averaging 18:56 minutes on the ice through December 31, he has averaged only 17:22 since March 1, making it harder for him to rack up shots on goal.
But our NHL betting model doesn’t care about averages or projections — it uses the books to beat the books. This Evgeni Malkin under renders as a +EV bet on FanDuel due to the odds disparity between that book, where the under 1.5 is +158 and Pinnacle, a sharp book, where it’s +148. Most other public books with the 1.5 are charging +145 or shorter for it.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
NHL Player Prop Pick Today: Evgeni Malkin total shots on goal live odds page!
NHL Anytime Goalscorer Pick Today: Ivan Barbashev
The Vegas Golden Knights will take on the Vancouver Canucks today. With Vancouver’s goaltender, Thatcher Demko, still working back from an injury, it’s probably Casey DeSmith in net for them.
That’s great news for Vegas — DeSmith ranks 56th of 65 goalies with 20-plus appearances in save percentage of unblocked shots (94.7%) and 47th in goals saved above expected per 60 (-0.13).
The Canucks haven’t beaten a playoff-caliber team since Demko’s injury, and tonight should be no exception. The Canucks have been good at limiting opposing offenses all year, as they are a top-eight team in shots allowed per game to all positions — except left wings.
Left wings are averaging 6.1 shots per game against Vancouver this year, which, while obviously less than what centers are averaging (10.1), is encouraging. Let’s get action on Vegas’ starter (and top power-play option) at left wing, Ivan Barbashev.
While the debut of Tomas Hertl may complicate matters for him, Barbashev has three goals over the last five games, more than right wing Jonathan Marchessault and center Jack Eichel.
You’ll find Barbashev trading at anytime goalscorer odds of +350 on BetMGM, but he clocks in a much stiffer +281 on Pinnacle and is +300 or worse at almost every other public book except FanDuel.
NHL Anytime Goalscorer Pick Today: Ivan Barbashev anytime goalscorer live odds page!
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