Among today’s Major League Baseball slate, there are a pair of NRFI bets that stand out. First, we’ll head to sunny San Diego for a mid-afternoon game. Then we’ll stay in California and move to the Bay Area for the final game of the evening. Now let’s get into the best no run first inning plays for Wednesday, Aug. 14.
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NRFI BETS TODAY: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Pirates vs. Padres | NRFI Bets Today
Mitch Keller has been stellar when it comes to preventing runs in the first inning. The right-hander has kept opponents from scoring in the first inning in 18 of his 23 starts (78%). He’ll bring his 3.56 ERA to Petco Park to face the formidable Padres.
Despite the fear of facing some of San Diego’s top weapons, I’m buying stock in Keller for at least this first inning. He’s only allowing one home run per nine innings and has a barrel rate below 7%. And considering he’s coming off his worst performance of the season, he’ll be eager to get back out there and execute early on.
On the other side, we have a bit of a revenge game with Martin Perez set to face his former club. Granted, he was with the Pirates for only half of this season, but it should still provide extra motivation for the southpaw.
Typically, I’d be a bit timid about backing a pitcher with a 4.78 ERA and 4.92 FIP, but Perez has shown improvement in his first two starts with the Padres. More often than not, a change of scenery benefits a pitcher — especially when the new location is somewhere as beautiful as San Diego. Nevertheless, in those two appearances he pitched 13 innings, allowed only three earned runs and racked up 13 strikeouts. Plus, he hit the NRFI in both of those spots and will get to face a weak Pittsburgh offense that has struggled on the road and against left-handed pitchers this season.
Some shops have this NRFI priced as high as -130, but our OddsShopper live odds page shows the best price at -110.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Pirates-Padres No Run First Inning (-110, BetMGM)
Braves vs. Giants | NRFI Bets Today
It’s a big shocker that the lowest total on today’s board offers a great NRFI opportunity. I know, I know, I’m not doing anything outlandish here — but this is a quality bet.
Robbie Ray is scheduled to make his fifth start of the season with the Giants. Aside from one poor start versus Oakland, he’s been great. He’s 3-1 on NRFI bets, and both his expected ERA and expected FIP are at 3.68. Also, his strikeout rate is over 33%, so I’m sure he’ll be licking his chops to face a Braves lineup that strikes out 24.4% of the time against lefties. This Atlanta lineup is just not what it used to be, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where it takes a leap forward at a pitcher’s paradise that is Oracle Park.
On the flip side, Grant Holmes will be taking the bump for the road team. He’s pitched 38 innings but has only started in three games. In those starts, he has yet to allow a run in the first inning and has tallied 20 strikeouts. His overall numbers are promising with a 3.79 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Also, San Francisco’s lineup has been even more disappointing than Atlanta’s. The Giants post a mediocre 94 wRC+ and .683 OPS against righties this year.
Both of these pitchers find themselves in favorable spots, and we should look to capitalize on that. Unfortunately, the odds are a bit pricey — and understandably so. Regardless, I have enough confidence in this matchup to lay the wood and ride the bet.
Bet: Braves/Giants NRFI (-121, BetRivers)
