It’s another exciting night in the MLB this evening, and we’ve got baseball to stream from the early afternoon to the late night. With a relatively unimpressive slate of pitchers, plenty of batter props stand out — and unders for those very pitchers. You can find my personal their results here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wedneday, August 14. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, August 14
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jameson Taillon
The Chicago Cubs will take on the Cleveland Guardians tonight. You can tune in live via MLB TV because it’s their free game of the day. What better way to watch than with a bet to sweat on it? With RHP Jameson Taillon taking the mound, you can find some value on the strikeout prop markets.
The Guardians are excellent at avoiding strikeouts. They rank fourth this season in strikeouts taken per game (7.3) and average even fewer at home (7). It’s been rougher sledding of late — Cleveland ranks third on the season in strikeout rate versus RHPs (19.2%) but only 10th since the MLB All-Star Break (20.9%). I have faith in them here, though.
That’s just a quick projection-based reason to fade Taillon. There are several market-based reasons, too. If you don’t know what market-based betting is, read our guide to positive expected value (+EV):
To help you spot similar sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, it estimates the expected value of every bet on the board that day.
Here, Taillon’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts clock in at -129, which is in line with the market consensus. Most books have the under priced between -130 and -150. Edges like this won’t make you a ton of money at once, but, over the long term, they can.
So how much money can systematic +EV betting make you? Check out our results page. As of today, our model had identified 3,062 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 3 or higher this season. Of those, 1,755 won, yielding a 12% ROI for those who tailed.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 3.5 Strikeouts -120 at Jameson Taillon total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani
The Los Angeles Dodgers will visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, and it’s RHP Frankie Montas taking the bump for the Brew Crew. Montas, who the Brewers landed at the deadline, hasn’t been great. He is coughing up 1.2 xHR/9, which, while not terrible, would be 1.6 HR/9 if he had played every game in Milwaukee.
The big issue for Montas has been LHBs, who are slashing .280/.371/.505 against him with 24 extra-base hits and 12 home runs in 214 at-bats. This should benefit LHB Shohei Ohtani, who is slashing a dominant .308/.408/.696 versus RHPs. Ohtani is even slashing .407/.515/.963 against Montas over a 27 at-bat sample that includes five home runs!
Of course, the books know all of the above. Ohtani’s home run odds clock in at +200 (33.3%) or worse at every major book. With Ohtani averaging 0.29 home runs per game, the +200 is enticing, but it’s a bit too low for me to get that excited. While there is still some value on that number, we can get even more value at DraftKings.
Today, DraftKings
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani +180 (+380 Boosted!) at Shohei Ohtani home run live odds page!
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