Monday was good to us, as we cashed an under for Jon Gray and an over for Bryce Harper with ease. Harper didn’t go yard for us, but we still turned a profit, and the FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday? Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, June 18. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, June 18
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jake Irvin
The Washington Nationals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and it’s RHP Jake Irvin taking the bump for the Nats. Irvin has been average this year, recording a 3.81 xERA (55th percentile) and .253 xBA (38th). However, his 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP may lead the public to have more confidence in him than they should.
Irvin isn’t great at punching out opposing batters. His 21.3% strikeout rate (43rd percentile) isn’t bad, but it’s a big jump from the 18.7% he posted last year, so I suspect he’ll regress at some point. Irvin’s strikeout total is set to 4.5, below his per-game average (4.9) and a number he has cleared in eight of his 14 starts.
The D-backs haven’t been as good as they were last year, but they can avoid strikeouts, especially against RHPs. They rank ninth in strikeouts taken per game (7.9) and 10th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (21.1%). They’ve been worse on the road, where they’ve taken 8.7 strikeouts per game, but Nationals Park is the second-worst stadium by park factors for strikeouts, which should help them a bit.
You’ll find the under 4.5 at odds between +110 and -125 at most public books, with the majority of lines concentrated between +100 and -110. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this bet priced at -135. Withmarket-based MLB betting model:
Our model calculates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. In Irvin’s case, his true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -104, which clears the price available at BetMGM and a handful of other books.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
Since the beginning of this MLB season, our model has identified 174 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 9 or higher at least two hours before game start. A nice 107 of those bets won, yielding a monstrous 22.6% ROI. Lock this one in before it disappears.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Jake Irvin total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez
It’s been a rough start for Julio Rodriguez, especially after the dominant performance he put together last season. Rodriguez slashed .275/.333/.485 with 32 home runs in 2023 but is slashing just .268/.319/.361 with seven home runs this year. That said, there are signs Rodriguez is heating up, and I’m backing him to go yard tonight.
Rodriguez has begun to rediscover his power in recent days. Over the last 15, he is slashing .260/.339/.460 with three home runs, a line much closer to what he recorded over the span of last season. His .276 xBA (81st percentile) and .443 xSLG (67th) both suggest he should continue to trend in the right direction.
We’re also getting Rodriguez outside of Seattle tonight, which is huge. T-Mobile Park is known as a pitcher’s park for good reason, and we saw it limit last year’s home run derby. This year, T-Mobile Park ranks 19th in park factors for home runs to righties, while Progressive Field ranks a friendlier 10th.
It’s RHP Triston McKenzie taking the bump for the Guardians today, and he has struggled with the long ball all year. McKenzie has coughed up 13.2 xHR this season, including 16 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at his home park. McKenzie is a fastball-dependent pitcher, and with his velo down to 90.8 mph, Rodriguez should feast.
I’ve got Rodriguez to get multiple bases (+420 at FanDuel). McKenzie is throwing his four-seamer about 50% of the time, and Rodriguez has a .505 xSLG against that pitch this year after recording a .489 last year. Even if he can’t send one of those over the fence, he should be able to lift one for an extra-base hit.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez home run live odds page!
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