Yesterday’s article scored a tidy 2-0 sweep, cashing an under for Cade Povich and an over for Christian Yelich. It would’ve been nice if Yelich’s double cleared the fences, but we’ll always take a total bases ticket. Can I run it back on today’s small slate? I think so — let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, June 20. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB player prop betting!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, June 20
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Cole Irvin
We’re going back to the well here by fading another Baltimore Orioles pitcher against the New York Yankees. We cashed Povich’s under by four yesterday, and with Aaron Judge and his 25% strikeout rate likely out of the lineup again today, I’m exciting about jumping at this angle again with LHP Cole Irvin.
The Yankees don’t take many strikeouts. They rank 10th-best in both total strikeouts taken per game (7.92) and strikeout rate against LHPs (20.3%). Contrast this with Irvin, whose 17.9% strikeout rate (22nd percentile) is quite pedestrian, and it has been for years — he recorded a 20.2% in 2023 (29th) and a 17.3% in 2022 (15th).
Irvin’s strikeout prop is trading at 4.5 everywhere. The under will cost you between -150 and -190 at almost every public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -186. However, you can get it for only market-based MLB betting model:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this case, Irvin’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -155, which clears the price available at FanDuel but nowhere else.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
From the start of the season to now, strikeout props with an OS Rating of 3 at least two hours before game start have yielded a 14.7% ROI over a 2,358-bet sample. That ROI improves to 19.6% for bets at FanDuel only.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Cole Irvin total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Paul Goldschmidt
We have a lot to talk about with this pick, and instead of starting with the pitcher or batter, let’s talk about the stadium. We’re at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama, today, not Busch Stadium. Rickwood Field’s dimensions are a bit strange — it’s got a somewhat shallow left corner, a very distant left alley and tall walls around the park. Goldschmidt pulls more balls than most to the left corner, so I’m optimistic the distant alleys won’t hurt him too much.
Goldschmidt will take on RHP Keaton Winn, who has struggled with same-handed batters this season. Winn is allowing RHBs to slash .296/.364/.528 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs. He is also coughing up 1.28 xHR/9. Winn walked Goldschmidt in their lone previous meeting.
At 36 years old, Goldschmidt isn’t as good as he once was., but we’re hoping he can channel his inner Toby Keith by batting as good as he ever was. Goldschmidt sports a .249 xBA (49th percentile) and .421 xSLG (55th), which are down year-over-year from the .271 xBA and .491 xSLG he recorded last season.
It helps that Goldschmidt can handle righty pitchers. He is slashing .214/.283/.359 against them on the year with 14 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Last year, he slashed .259/.359/.446 against them with 43 extra-base hits and 20 home runs. Let’s hope he can take advantage of a pitcher whose ERA sits at 9.12 through 24.2 innings outside of pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Paul Goldschmidt home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
