It’s Thursday, which means we don’t have much evening action in the MLB. At 7:15 p.m. ET, the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals will do battle at Birmingham’s Rickwood Field, and both of out experts are targeting that game with their picks. Let’s dive into our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, June 20
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, June 20
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@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Nolan Gorman O/U 1.5 H/R/RBI: Two things are heavily in our favor with this Nolan Gorman over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs bet tonight in the Giants-Cardinals game at Rickwood Field: (a) the +115 odds on DraftKings, and (b) the adjusted dimensions of the park.
The Giants are sending out RHP Keaton Winn, who basically throws a splitter, a sinker and a fastball to left-handed batters like Gorman.
He is slugging .455 and .692 against the splitter and sinker, respectively. Those two pitches comprise about 60% of Winn’s arsenal to lefties, so Gorman should see a steady diet of pitches he can handle.
But the real boon here — and you can get extra spicy with a Nolan Gorman home run for +500 if you want — is the dimensions being brought in to aid Gorman’s natural pull-side power:
The right-field wall has been brought in to 332 feet down the line, which is where the majority of his home runs have come this season.
And, if you check out the accompanying spray chart, you can see he has immense power to the gap in right-center as well, which would play well in Rickwood Field, as the right-center wall stretches all the way to 392 feet. So, anything that gets into the gap is surely extra bases, which would definitely score a runner on base or put Gorman in scoring position.
Those are all great things when you’re looking to cash the over on the 1.5 H/R/RBIs line.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 H/R/RBI +115 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Paul Goldschmidt O/U 1.5 TB: We have a lot to talk about with this pick, and instead of starting with the pitcher or batter, let’s talk about the stadium. We’re at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama, today, not Busch Stadium. Rickwood Field’s dimensions are a bit strange — it’s got a somewhat shallow left corner, a very distant left alley and tall walls around the park. Goldschmidt pulls more balls than most to the left corner, so I’m optimistic the distant alleys won’t hurt him too much.
Goldschmidt will take on RHP Keaton Winn, who has struggled with same-handed batters this season. Winn is allowing RHBs to slash .296/.364/.528 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs. He is also coughing up 1.28 xHR/9. Winn walked Goldschmidt in their lone previous meeting.
At 36 years old, Goldschmidt isn’t as good he once was., but we’re hoping he can channel his inner Toby Keith by batting as good as he ever was. Goldschmidt sports a .249 xBA (49th percentile) and .421 xSLG (55th), which are down year-over-year from the .271 xBA and .491 xSLG he recorded last season.
It helps that Goldschmidt can handle righty pitchers. He is slashing .214/.283/.359 against them on the year with 14 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Last year, he slashed .259/.359/.446 against them with 43 extra-base hits and 20 home runs. Let’s hope he can take advantage of a pitcher whose ERA sits at 9.12 through 24.2 innings outside of pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 at DraftKings
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