A 1-1 split yesterday brings us to 8-3-1 since last week (I don’t double-count the total base and home run props), which, while good, could be better! I’m optimistic that we can stay hot on today’s slate, especially so many shaky pitchers taking the mound. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, June 13. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, June 13
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Roddery Munoz
The New York Mets are hosting the Miami Marlins today, and it’s RHP Roddery Munoz’s turn in the rotation. The 24-year-old has been pretty awful this season, sporting a 5.95 ERA and 7.30 xERA (1st percentile). He has been a capable strikeout pitcher, posting a 25.9% strikeout rate, but could easily get shelled and pulled early.
Munoz’s problem has been lefties. They’re slashing .324/.425/.912 against him (yes, an MLB pitcher is allowing a 1.337 OPS to lefties). The Mets don’t have many great lefties in their lineup, but they’re ninth in strikeouts taken per game (8) and 10th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (21.3%). With 15 mph winds blowing straight out of Citi Field tonight, they could be an even bigger problem tonight.
You’ll find Munoz’s strikeout prop trading at 4.5, a number he went over in his first three starts but not his most recent. It’s worth noting that those first three matchups game against the Cubs, Rockies and Dodgers, all of whom rank below the league average in strikeouts taken per game.
The under 4.5 is trading between +100 and -115 at most public books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it priced at -123. Unsurprisingly, the +100 is trading with plenty of market-based MLB betting model:
Our model calculates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. In this example, the true odds of Munoz staying under 4.5 strikeouts are estimated to be -104, beating the lines available at BetMGM by a slight margin.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
Over a 1,599-bet sample of strikeout props with an OS Rating of 1 or more found two hours before game start, 901 won. That win rate was good enough for a 10.6% ROI. Only 55 of 101 bets hit at BetMGM, yielding a 3% ROI, so there’s a bit more risk than I usually like with today’s model pick, but I feel very comfortable fading Munoz today.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Roddery Munoz total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christopher Morel
The Chicago Cubs are in Tropicana Field today, which isn’t usually a great situation for home runs. That said, the Trop is right around the league average in park factors for home runs over the last three seasons (and is eighth this year). It’s even the fourth-best stadium for home runs to right-handed hitters so far this year, too.
We’re backing Christopher Morel, a righty, in this ballpark tonight. The Rays will start RHP Taj Bradley this evening, and while he has been decent against righties this season, holding them to .200/.276/.440, they’re still slashing .266/.330/.571 against him since his call-up last season. Bradley has given up 21 home runs to righty batsmen over that sample.
This pick just isn’t about Bradley’s totals, though — it’s about rates. He is coughing up just under two expected home runs per nine, which is the second-worst number of any starting pitcher today (Roddery Munoz at 3.4 is worse). Bradley has coughed up seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Trop this year.
Morel is no slouch, either. He is slashing .212/.316/.397 against RHPs this year with nine home runs, which could (and should) be better. His .267 xBA and .502 xSLG suggest he has gotten unlucky. He has 13 actual home runs but 13.1 expected home runs, including 14 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Trop.
I have action on Bradley to go yard (+135 at BetMGM). He should get at least a base hit against Bradley. Once the struggling RHP exits, Morel will get to tee off against a bullpen that ranks eighth-worst by ERA, sixth-worst by hits allowed and second-worst by home runs allowed. Sign me up!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christopher Morel home run live odds page!
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