The MLB rolls on this summer with a solid Thursday slate. Although it’s a travel day, we’ve still got plenty of games on the schedule, both in the early afternoon and in the evening. With a ton of action in store, let’s dive into our MLB MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, June 13
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, June 13
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@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Kyle Schwarber O/U 1.5 Total Bases: The June cliche seems to be coming to fruition for Kyle Schwarber again, as the Phillies’ leadoff hitter has gotten hot of late. A five-game hitting streak and a double-dong game in that span will definitely do it.
Tonight looks like a spot where he could continue to bring the heat. He’ll take on Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck, who relies heavily on pitches Schwarber loves to feast on: the sinker and slider.
In 2024, Schwarber has a 48% hard-hit rate against the slider to go with a staggering 53.3% hard-hit rate against the sinker.
The Phillies’ lefty possesses immense power and is a threat to hit any ball out of the yard — especially in a place like Fenway Park.
Hitting in the leadoff spot and being assured to get at-bats in the ninth inning as the away team, I love the +120 odds on the over 1.5 total bases here for Schwarber in this matchup against Houck.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at Fanatics
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Christopher Morel O/U 1.5 TB: The Chicago Cubs are in Tropicana Field today, which isn’t usually a great situation for home runs. That said, the Trop is right around the league average in park factors for home runs over the last three seasons (and is eighth this year). It’s even the fourth-best stadium for home runs to right-handed hitters so far this year, too.
We’re backing Christopher Morel, a righty, in this ballpark tonight. The Rays will start RHP Taj Bradley this evening, and while he has been decent against righties this season, holding them to .200/.276/.440, they’re still slashing .266/.330/.571 against him since his call-up last season. Bradley has given up 21 home runs to righty batsmen over that sample.
This pick just isn’t about Bradley’s totals, though — it’s about rates. He is coughing up just under two expected home runs per nine, which is the second-worst number of any starting pitcher today (Roddery Munoz at 3.4 is worse). Bradley has coughed up seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Trop this year.
Morel is no slouch, either. He is slashing .212/.316/.397 against RHPs this year with nine home runs, which could (and should) be better. His .267 xBA and .502 xSLG suggest he has gotten unlucky. He has 13 actual home runs but 13.1 expected home runs, including 14 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Trop.
I have action on Bradley to go yard (+135 at BetMGM). He should get at least a base hit against Bradley. Once the struggling RHP exits, Morel will get to tee off against a bullpen that ranks eighth-worst by ERA, sixth-worst by hits allowed and second-worst by home runs allowed. Sign me up!
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 at BetMGM
@Loughy_D – Player Prop – Pete Alonso O/U 0.5 Home Runs: Roddery Munoz won’t be with the Marlins for long with the way he’s pitched this season. Through four starts, the rookie right-hander has coughed up eight home runs and owns a ghastly 21.2 barrel rate to accompany his 28.8 GB%.
Munoz also surrendered a lot of power at Triple-A so this doesn’t feel like a fluke. Normally, I’d look to grab a lefty bat in this spot, but winds are blowing out to left field at 13 MPH in 80-degree temperatures, and Alonso is New York’s best power bat against right-handed arms with a .282 ISO and 10 homers on the year.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Pete Alonso +425 at BetMGM
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