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Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, June 30
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Ty
Our last home run bet was not a winner — which is to be expected when the win rate on his home run bets is only 11%. What matters is not the short-term results; it’s the long-term expected value.
And today, to hit a home run is easily the best home run bet on the market, as only two player are +EV at all at the moment (both on FanDuel). The other is Julio Rodriguez, whose odds have dropped a bit since the 5 OS Rating, but he is still pushing solidly at a 2 Rating and 6.6% +EV.
, meanwhile, is all the way up at 10% +EV an OS Rating of 3, as his odds have held pretty firm at +870 all morning. OddsShopper’s MLB betting model puts his True Odds at +782, which is why we are getting such a massive edge here.
The matchup works in our favor here as well. Minnesota’s Joe Ryan is not quite the strikeout/power combo he was last year where he was fanning almost 30% and getting bombed at nearly 5%, but he still can be volatile. He is allowing a .180 ISO — which is fairly high end for a good pitcher — and his home run rate of 3.9% is around his 4.0% career average.
also went deep on Tuesday, giving him his first home run of the month, so he may be getting his power swing back. With the long-term value on a 10% +EV, betting on him is worth a sprinkle this afternoon.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Ty live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr.
Where’s the fun in betting a leading MVP candidate to fail to record an RBI? Well, the fun comes from making money, and as our guy Loughy explains in this video, betting unders is far more often than not the way to do that.
As good as he has been this year, Witt’s 53 RBIs are only ninth in the American League and don’t even lead his own team (Vinnie Pasquantino).
The thing is that Witt is the guy getting on base for Pasquantino to drive in, whereas the Royals in front of Witt are not exactly Rickey Henderson. Witt is top 5 in MLB in runs scored, by the way.
So really this is more a fade of the Royals lineup as a whole than it is one of Witt. Now, if Witt were clubbing home runs left and right, maybe it would be different. As it is, though, OddsShopper’s MLB betting model gives him a 62% chance of failing to drive in a run.
The True Odds for this under are -166, and Caesars‘ odds are -166 — that gives us a solid 3.7% edge on the under, and more importantly, the high win rate push the OS Rating up to a very strong 5.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 RBIs (-151 at Caesars)
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