I don’t write up these picks on Sunday, but on Saturday, we scored a very nice 2-1 showing by cashing tickets for Yordan Alvarez and RHP Mitch Keller. Let’s keep the momentum rolling into this week! I’ve got action on a few MLB player props, including one home run pick and one bet from our +EV betting tools, you can get them for 50% off — just keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, April 22
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Lars Nootbaar
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening in a contest that I wish was scheduled for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. The Cardinals will star RHP Lance Lynn while the D-backs will start RHP Brandon Pfaadt. The duo has combined to allow eight actual and 8.3 expected home runs this season at a relatively even split. But after combing through the odds, I’m most interested in backing St. Louis’ Lars Nootbaar for a big game.
Although Nootbaar takes a back seat against LHPs, he has been ferocious against RHPs this season. Nootbaar is slashing .241/.405/.414 with one actual and 1.6 expected home runs. That slash line ticks up to .273/.448/.455 against RHPs like Pfaadt, which bodes well for Nootbaar’s first few at-bats today.
We’re using a relatively small sample to analyze Nootbaar, but from what we’ve seen, he boasts a .357 xBA and .641 xSLG with an elite 52% hard-hit rate. Those numbers are a meaningful uptick from the .265, .436 and 37.8% that Nootbaar recorded in those stats last year, respectively, but I’m willing to ride the hot hand.
Nootbaar has even faced Pfaadt before, and it did not go well for the right-handed hurler. The 26-year-old slugger mashed one hit — a home run — over a sample of three at-bats. I’m backing him to record multiple bases and a home run today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Lars Nootbaar total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Brandon Pfaadt
You might be starting to pick up on a theme here: we’re going back to the well of tonight’s D-backs-Cardinals game by fading Arizona’s starter, RHP Brandon Pfaadt. Our positive expected value (+EV):
As you can see, Pfaadt’s under 5.5 strikeouts prop will cost you only -120 at Caesars both have much stingier prices at -157 and -158, respectively.
So how does the model work? You can read our guide to using +EV betting tools here — but I’ll give you the spark notes. It indexes the odds from across the market, weights them for book sharpness and other factors, and identifies the breakeven point for each bet.
Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll — just as the results to prove it.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Brandon Pfaadt total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Blaze Alexander
Our guide to home run betting), and this outlier number is a great example. Blaze Alexander will cost you only +1060 on FanDuel to go yard today while every other book is charging +850 or worse — and Pinnacle has the same bet for +444!
Alexander isn’t a household name, but he has mashed three actual and 2.9 expected home runs this season, and he draws a matchup with the aforementioned RHP Lance Lynn, who coughed up the most actual and expected home runs last season. Alexander now gets Lynn with winds of between 13 and 22 mph blowing out of Busch Field, per our MLB weather report.
Even if Alexander doesn’t go yard tonight, bets that beat the market by this much, when wagered over the long term, will yield meaningful results. The key is building enough of a sample to insulate yourself from variance.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Blaze Alexander home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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