The NBA playoffs continue with a three-game slate on tap tonight. The three lower-seeded teams (Orlando, Philadelphia and Los Angeles) all have one more chance to steal a road game before their series return home. With so much on the line, I’ve identified some spots worth getting action on with the help of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kyle Lowry & More
Max Strus Player Prop
The Cleveland Cavaliers waxed the Orlando Magic on Saturday with a more physical brand of basketball than what we saw from them in last year’s postseason. It’s unclear how the Magic will adjust, but after getting cooked by Donovan Mitchell (30 points), I suspect they’ll turn up the heat on him. One potential consequence of an increased focus on limiting Mitchell would be more open looks for Max Strus.
Strus already got several open looks in Game 1 but failed to convert them. Strus finished with seven points, shooting 37.5% from the floor and 25% from beyond the arc. He went only 2-for-6 (33.3%) when taking uncontested shots. If Strus sees a similar volume of uncontested shots, or if he gets even more of them due to defensive adjustments by Orlando, he should sail over his points total (9.5).
The 9.5 is just too low for a player like Strus. He averaged 12.2 points per game in the regular season (and 12.2 after the All-Star Break). He also averaged 12.8 points per game versus the Magic in the regular season, suring the 9.5-point mark in three of four games.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Max Strus points and assists live odds page!
Kyle Lowry Player Prop
The Philadelphia 76ers got a scare against the New York Knicks on Saturday as it looked like Joel Embiid could miss time. While the superstar center did return to the court, he missed several crucial minutes and the 76ers lost. Today, our positive expected value (+EV):
Bettors who back Lowry to stay under the 8.5 points mark at DraftKings are beating the market by a meaningful margin. Lowry is trading at +100 or worse everywhere, including Pinnacle, a sharp book, which has this bet priced at -119. Well, everywhere except for DraftKings, where you’ll find Lowry under 8.5 points priced at +110!
By using +EV like this one every day. We know this is a +EV bet because of how the model works. It estimates the bet’s true odds (a breakeven price) by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for book sharpness, hold and more; and generating a fair price. The true odds of this wager are -101, which the +110 clears by a healthy margin.
When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, it’s a +EV bet! Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Lowry points live odds page!
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