It’s a travel day in the MLB, which means we’ve got a limited slate of action on tap this evening. However, our experts are undeterred, and we’ve got plenty of bets for you to tail this evening. Let’s dive into our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, May 30
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, May 30
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper for every pick!
@Loughy_D – Player Prop – Carlos Rodon O/U 4.5 Hits Allowed: Even without Mike Trout, the Angels have actually been good against lefties, sitting second in batting average, and top five in wOBA, ISO and wRC+.
Angel Stadium has also served as a top five hitters’ park over the last three years. Meanwhile, Rodon has been solid, but he has a 4.5 xERA, a 50% flyball rate and a .219 xISO vs. right-handed bats, of which the Angels will likely have seven in their lineup tonight.
It does feel like Rodon has been somewhat lucky, especially considering he ranks bottom 18 percentile in hard hit, barrel and ground ball rate while sporting an 87 percent strand rate and .267 BABIP through 11 starts.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Carlos Rodon Over 4.5 Strikeouts -125 at BetMGM
@shanderbets – DET @ BOS – Moneyline: The Tigers — especially Jack Flaherty — are better than his current record, which is even more proof that nobody should ever use wins and losses to define a pitcher. He is 1-4 this year.
Flaherty been throwing fire with a 33.3% K rate combined with a minimal 3.7% walk rate. That’s also with a .268 xwOBA that should limit an already banged up Red Sox lineup.
I’m taking the better pitcher, Nick Pivetta is ok but no Jack Flats, against an injured Sox team unable to do much at home. Oil Can Boyd ain’t walking through that door, gimme the Tigers to win.
MLB Expert Pick Today: DET @ BOS – Detroit Tigers ML -102 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Taylor Ward O/U 1.5 TB: Today’s home run pick may come as a bit of a surprise. Instead of targeting a big name or fading a pitcher with a terrible ERA, we’re picking a talented (and red-hot) smaller-name player facing a pitcher with a very solid 2.95 ERA in LHP Carlos Rodon. A quick look at Rodon’s expected stats reveals his hot start to the season probably isn’t sustainable.
Despite sporting the fourth-best ERA of today’s probable pitchers (counting Brady Singer, who has since been scratched), Rodon sports the third-worst xERA of the sample. He has also allowed the most actual (9) and expected (9.2) home runs.
Rodon’s struggles stem from solid batting splits from righties like Taylor Ward. He is allowing them to slash .232/.310/.426 with 18 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Ward himself is slashing .400/.500/1.000 against Rodon over a six plate-appearance sample.
We’re backing Ward just as much as we’re fading Rodon. The veteran outfielder is slashing a solid .271/.332/.478 this season that improves to .349/.396/.488 against lefties. The home runs haven’t been there, as just one of his 15 hits went over the fence, but the hits certainly have been.
Let’s back Ward to record multiple bases (+600 at Caesars) for a bit of coin tonight. Those odds are just too long for a guy who has a .289 xBA (91st percentile) and .552 xSLG (95th) along with 11 actual and expected home runs.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Total Bases +150 at Fanatics
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