The Minnesota Timberwolves forced a Game 5, which they get to host, and they’re heading into this one with the mentality that they’re going back to Dallas for Game 6. Our experts are just as self-confident as the Timberwolves with their picks for tonight’s basketball action. Let’s dive into our NBA NBA +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Mavs-T’Wolves Expert Picks & Predictions for WCF Game 5
NBA Mavericks-Timberwolves Expert Picks & Predictions for WCF Game 5
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Mavs-Timberwolves Odds
Odds via DraftKings
DAL ML: +160 | MIN ML: -192
2DAL +4.5: -108 | MIN -4.5: -112
Over 209.5: -112 | Under 209.5: -108
Mavericks-Timberwolves Picks & Predictions
@jazzrazdfs – Spread – DAL +4.5: The Timberwolves weren’t quite ready to have their season end as they found a way to extend the series to at least a game 5. They now get another home game and find themselves as a 4.5-point favorite.
Although they certainly have the skills and talent to extend the series further, I’m looking to take the points with the Mavericks. This series has been back and forth and down to the wire often, and that’s once again what I expect tonight. The Wolves in Game 4 were 46% from 3, over 50% from the field and got a massive game from Karl-Anthony Towns. Not saying that can’t happen again, but there’s a lot of potential regression with those type of numbers. On the flip side. Dallas was just 14-40 from 3 and got minimal outputs from both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
The Mavericks were still more than competitive in turnovers and rebounding, and I don’t see that changing here. All of this goes back to the original point that 4.5 points is just too many in a series that has been so back and forth. Dallas has the ability to end this series tonight, but even if they don’t, I believe they keep it close enough to cover this number. Laying -105 for 4.5 points is the spot I want to attack in what should be must-see TV tonight.
Western Conference Finals Game 5 Expert Pick & Prediction: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 -105 at BetMGM
@EricLindquist – Player Prop – Daniel Gafford O/U 16.5 PRA: Despite getting praise for high-energy blocks and lob dunks on every telecast, Daniel Gafford has not been a good basketball player for the Dallas Mavericks.
In 16 games this postseason, he has just a 104.1 offensive rating and 112 defensive rating, which compared, when to Dereck Lively II and his 118.1 offensive rating and 103.4 defensive rating, looks horrific.
And it’s not just Lively’s likely return to the lineup that matters to Gafford’s minutes tonight: Maxi Kleber is also a frontcourt option that Jason Kidd utilized for 13 minutes in his Game 4 return.
I’m still under the assumption Gafford starts, but plus money at 16.5 here is too good to up with the potential minutes change from high-20’s/low-30’s down to high-10’s/low-20’s
Western Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Daniel Gafford Under 16.5 PRA +110 at Caesars
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Anthony Edwards O/U 14.5 R&A: Anthony Edwards just nabbed 10 rebounds and racked up nine assists in his Game 4 win. He is now averaging 8.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game this series (17.1). While playing the over 14.5 is buying high, I actually think the increase in his production is sustainable.
Edwards is averaging 6.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists in the postseason (13.4) after averaging 5.4 and 5.1 in the regular season (10.5). His rebound and assist prop is now trading at 14.5 for tonight’s action because of his recent spike, but one wonders if that’s enough of an increase.
The underlying volume has increased for Edwards. He averaged 9.1 rebounding chances per game in the regular season, a number that has grown to 11 in the postseason and 14.8 this series. Likewise, his potential assists have grown from 8 to 10.7 and 13.3, respectively.
Everything suggests Edwards should continue to get boards and dish out assists at a rate better than his regular season averages. With Dallas struggling to stop the pick-and-roll and Edwards spending more of his time on the ball, I’m breaking one of my rules of NBA playoff player prop betting by buying high on him here. This number should be higher.
Western Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Anthony Edwards Over 14.5 Rebounds & Assists +100 at FanDuel
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