Hopefully everyone had a good and safe (and perhaps still continuing) holiday weekend. We’re turning to baseball for today’s action — can our experts stay hot despite the new challenge? Let’s dive into our MLB MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Monday, May 27
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Monday, May 27
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper for every pick!
@Loughy_D – Blake Snell: Snell has been awful through four starts this year, but I’m not buying it. Consider this: he has a .417 BABIP and 44.5% strand rate yet he’s generating ground balls at a 51% clip? That doesn’t compute.
All of the underlying numbers suggest Snell has been seriously unlucky thus far, and he’ll be pitching in a extreme pitcher-friendly venue tonight against the Phillies. Not to mention, velocity is unchanged. I don’t think it’s at all unrealistic to think we can get 5 innings from Snell in this spot.
The only real concern is that Snell, who is awaiting the birth of his baby, could just leave the game if his girlfriend goes into labor… that would suck.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Blake Snell O 14.5 Outs minus 117 Caesars
@EricLindquist – Bryce Miller: Miller’s swing-and-miss stuff is going to be tested tonight against a Houston Astros team striking out at the lowest clip in baseball vs. RHP (17.8% K). And while he does sport a decent 24.3% K rate on the season, he’s had 4-or-fewer strikeouts in three of his past four outings, making plus money here too good to up.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Bryce Miller u4.5 K’s plus 120 FanDuel
@nd_joyce – Lance Lynn o3.5 earned runs: The matchups don’t get much better for hitters than facing dusty Lance Lynn in Great American Ballpark with the wind blowing out nearly 14 mph.
Lynn is a 40% flyball pitcher this year, and allowing flyballs in a park like GABP that can play extremely small at times — especially with the wind aiding any well-struck ball — is a dangerous proposition. So, getting +106 odds on the over 3.5 earned runs for Lynn feels like a spot we can attack.
By hook or by crook, Lynn has avoided giving up a grip of home runs this season, outside of being touched up for three jacks against the lowly Marlins. This feels like the spot where the regression monster could really bite him in the butt.
And, if you’re looking for a little something extra, I also looked at home run bets for Jeimer Candelario (+450 Caesars) and Tyler Stephenson (+450 BetMGM).
MLB Expert Pick Today: Lance Lynn o3.5 earned runs at Caesars plus 106
@ShanderSHow- Royals: The Kansas City Royals today on the ML, fading the hosting Twins and Joe Ryan.
Alec Marsh is 2-1 with a favorable 2.82 ERW in road starts, as the Royals are winners of 8 of their last 12 games away from KC. Joe Ryan’s home starts have gone the way of the Timberwolves, with an ERA inching closer to 6.00
MLB Expert Pick Today: KC +145 MGM 1u
Sam Smith– MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick: We’ll start the way I do every morning: Dealing with the night sweat. Alvarez and the Astros are in Seattle taking on a righty in Bryce Miller who has been the best Mariners starter for stretches and the most volatile one for others, with very little in between. Right now he is in the latter stage — bully for a home run bet on a power lefty.
Miller has given up four-plus runs in three of the last four and six total home runs in that timeframe, three of which came last time out against the Yankees. His overall numbers against lefties aren’t terrible, per se; his .647 OPS against is able, and he is holding opposite-handed hitters well below the Mendoza line.
The problem is that, when Miller does allow power, the ball travels. Eight of his 11 home runs surrendered have come against lefties, and the sample sizes between righty and lefty splits are comparable.
That brings us to one of the most fearsome lefty bats in baseball. Yes, Alvarez’s power numbers pale in comparison to those of his teammate Kyle Tucker, and +270 to hit a home run is pretty short for a guy slugging below .500.
But six of Alvarez’s nine home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and he is actually performing quite a bit bit better away from Houston. Alvarez’s slugging percentage is strong at .526 on the road, as is his ISO of .210.
Plus, though Alvarez’s modest power numbers are holding steady, he does have an eight-game hit streak going, during which his OPS is over 1.000. With Miller turning into a bit of a gas can, the situation is set up well for Alvarez to go deep, and OddsShopper’s MLB betting model puts this home run at 2.0% with a 28% chance of winning.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+270 at BetRivers)
