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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
This series being 3-0 creates a dynamic for Game 4 that’s a little hard to decipher. Every game has been close, and thus Tatum has played 42-plus minutes in all three. But also, down 3-0, maybe Indiana is more likely to throw in the towel if the deficit reaches 15 or 20? Or the Celtics could rest starters a little more knowing they have wiggle room in the series.
Tatum’s points + rebounds + assists line is high at 45.5, and given he is good for 30 points and 10 rebounds most nights, it’s a good line. If he falls below 30 points, however, chances are he is going to have a tough time reaching 46 PRA — look at the first game of the Miami series for proof, as he put up a triple-double but scored only 23 and thus ended up with 43 PRA.
That game was also a blowout, which has to be a factor here. Especially if Tyrese Haliburton is out again, the Pacers are on their last legs and have probably played each game about as close as they possibly can. They may be due for the clunker they are really yet to have.
Because Boston has largely cruised through the playoffs, Tatum only has four overs on 45.5 PRA in 13 games. Those four also happen to be his four 30-point games, so it seems that’s the number he has to reach to have a shot at 46 PRA.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum live odds page!
Aaron Nesmith Player Prop
Some of the points in favor of Tatum’s under also apply to Nesmith over/under 4.5 rebounds– he’s been playing a lot of minutes, there is some blowout potential here, Indiana may rest starters down the stretch if the game gets out of reach. But even in a neutral script, Nesmith getting five rebounds or more is basically a 50-50 proposition. Nesmith has at least five rebounds in eight of 16 postseason games but was well shy of the 50% mark in the regular season — just 30.6% of his games. His role has undoubtedly changed in the playoffs, however.
Our positive expected value (+EV), nonetheless.
OddsShopper’s bet365 offers the most value of the bunch at 5.7% +EV.
OddsShopper evaluates these True Odds by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to generate an estimate.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Aaron Nesmith live odds page!
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