It’s a relatively unexciting MLB slate this evening, but the best way to spice things up is to get action on the MLB player prop markets. Let’s dive into our MLB MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Monday, June 3
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Monday, June 3
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper for every pick!
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Jordan Westburg o1.5 TB: We’re getting nice value at +125 for the over 1.5 total bases line for Jordan Westburg tonight against Kevin Gausman. Now, on paper, it might seem silly to target the guy who was third in AL Cy Young voting a year ago, but hear me out.
But one guy who has been consistent in 2024 is Westburg, and the thing he’s done consistently is crush right-handed pitching. Particularly the fastball.
Westburg has an insane 7 run value against four-seamers this year, which Gausman throws just a shade under 50% of the time. Let’s have a quick look at Westburg’s numbers against four-seamers in 2024:
.306 AVG
.673 SLG%
.450 wOBA
62.2% Hard Hit Rate
WIth those type of numbers and a NSFW Baseball Savant Statcast chart showing his 90th percentile rankings in expected slugging, expected batting average, exit velocity and hard-hit rate, I absolutely love this bet at +125.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Jordan Westburg Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 at BetRivers
@shanderbets – Run Line – MIL @ PHI: The Phillies lost (arguably) their best pitcher in Ranger Suarez and just watched their worst pitcher get knocked around by St. Louis. Nobody needs a typical “Wheels Up” start from Zack Wheeler more than this team.
They have a great spot against a Milwaukee Brewers team in South Philly that is still sorting out their rotation. Either a back-end spot starter or bullpen arm should go for Milwaukee, further giving the Phillies bats some early looks.
Wheels should have plenty of run here, and I like the +104 at BetRivers since it has already moved below even money everywhere else.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +104 at BetRivers
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Kyle Tucker O/U 1.5 TB: Kyle Tucker and the Houston Astros will get to tee off against RHP Kyle Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals at home tonight. While Gibson has put together a solid 2.84 ERA, his 5.24 xERA is far less impressive. Gibson’s .272 xBA and .468 xSLG are similarly bad, but it’s his 8.4 xHR allowed — and his 9 xHR allowed in Minute Maid Park — that get me the most excited.
Gibson, a righty, has been worse against opposite-handed batters this year. He has coughed up a .233/.322/.465 slash line to them with 16 extra-base hits and six home runs.
Pitchers on both sides must contend with some seriously hitter-friendly conditions. The MLB weather report calls for 14 mph winds out through center field with 86-degree temperatures and 70% humidity.
We haven’t even talked about Kyle Tucker yet, but I don’t need to say much — his stats do most of the talking. Tucker’s .284 xBA (85th percentile) and .568 xSLG (97th) are elite. He is slashing .289/.422/.644 versus RHPs as well.
Tucker has mashed 19 actual and 14 expected home runs this year, with 19 of his batted the balls good enough to clear the fence in Houston. He also has 14 home runs and 20 extra-base hits against RHPs. Back him to go yard (+430 at FanDuel) and get multiple bases (+115 at DraftKings).
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at DraftKings
@EricLindquist – Player Prop -Ezequiel Tovar O/U 0.5 HR: On the surface, Andrew Abbott looks solid at avoiding power — a 32.3% hard hit rate and .373 xSLG will do that — but then you pull up his splits. Against righties, Abbott has a .172 xISO and an actual .237 ISO with a 19.7-degree launch angle off the bat.
Enter a surprising power candidate in Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar who sports a .225 xISO vs. LHP along with a 19-degree launch angle. Will wait to see what other righties make the lineup tonight before firing other Rockies HR props, but no doubt Tovar should be somewhere atop this lineup in 84-degree weather at run-happy Coors Field tonight.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 Home Runs +450 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
